India Trade Imminent?

[CJD]

(9 hours ago)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Well it finally happened.

The #Reds have acquired RHP Brady Singer from the Royals in exchange for IF Jonathan India and OF Joey Wiemer.

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) November 23, 2024

I think this is a good trade. Singer is not a top of the rotation arm, but India wasn't an elite hitter or fielder. We traded a solid player for a solid player that filled needs for both teams.

Wiemer being added to the deal doesn't feel like a huge loss. We needed outfielders bad last year, and he still couldn't make an impact. Maybe he learns to hit and becomes a decent player down the line, but he's now going to his 3rd team in less than a year. That typically means the player has major flaws that coaches feel they need to move him before his value falls to zero.

I will miss India because he was the leader on our team in 2023 and 2024, but the young guys are healthy and ready to step up I think.

Singer is a player I think the Royals are selling high on, so I want to temper my expectations of him. He outperformed his underlying statistics. His expected ERA was almost an entire run higher than his actual ERA, 4.65 vs 3.71), but he's about league average in strikeouts, walk rate, exit velocity, whiff rate, and barrel rate. The one thing I really like about his profile is he is 79th percentile in ground ball rate, nearly 50% of his balls in play were grounders. That'll play well in GABP. 

But, by far, his biggest strength is the fact that he has been what modern baseball considers an innings eater. In his last 3 seasons, he has exceeded 150 IP, with a career high 179.2 IP in 2024. That was good for 22nd highest in the majors last season. He also made 32 starts, tied for 9th in MLB last year. We haven't had a pitcher go over 150.1 IP since 2021 with Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Wade Miley. 

Singer, even if he's just a 4.00 ERA Pitcher, will be a stabilizing force for a rotation that has one legitimate star, and then a bunch of young guys that could explode or struggle down the stretch. Every 5th day, you'll know you're likely getting a start that won't make the game unwinnable before the 3rd inning (which, sadly enough, is an improvement from 2024).

We'll see what other moves they make to improve the offense going forward. Because with this, along with Martinez signing his qualifying offer, I think our rotation is set. They may add one or two bullpen arms down the stretch, but the majority of the off season should now be going towards finding a reliable every day right handed bat for the outfield and a solid back up catcher. If they can find some good depth on the bench as well, more power to them.