Yesterday, 07:22 PM
One thing to note when looking at playoff % chances. It doesn’t calculate probability but it calculates chance. Meaning, it doesn’t factor what’s likely to happen. Before today we needed 4 things to happen, we need to win 3x, Miami needs to lose any 1 game, colts lose any 1 game, Denver lose out. The probability of that happening is extremely low. The chance of each individual thing happening is 50%. So take the 0.5 x 4 and you get kit 6% chance. because we need 4 things to happen and all them are 50/50 outcome: yes or no.
As more of those 4 measurements begin to happen, our chances will only increase slightly, but I think the probability will increase even more so. To me our biggest challenges in order are: winning vs Denver, winning vs Pitt, indi L, mia L.
If after next week we win, Mia has 1 L and Ind has 1 L, our play off chances are 25%. I would personally guess our probability is probably closer to 50%.
Just some fun nerd math for a Sunday evening.
As more of those 4 measurements begin to happen, our chances will only increase slightly, but I think the probability will increase even more so. To me our biggest challenges in order are: winning vs Denver, winning vs Pitt, indi L, mia L.
If after next week we win, Mia has 1 L and Ind has 1 L, our play off chances are 25%. I would personally guess our probability is probably closer to 50%.
Just some fun nerd math for a Sunday evening.