Yesterday, 07:46 PM
(Yesterday, 07:22 PM)Ell Prez Wrote: One thing to note when looking at playoff % chances. It doesn’t calculate probability but it calculates chance. Meaning, it doesn’t factor what’s likely to happen. Before today we needed 4 things to happen, we need to win 3x, Miami needs to lose any 1 game, colts lose any 1 game, Denver lose out. The probability of that happening is extremely low. The chance of each individual thing happening is 50%. So take the 0.5 x 4 and you get kit 6% chance. because we need 4 things to happen and all them are 50/50 outcome: yes or no.
As more of those 4 measurements begin to happen, our chances will only increase slightly, but I think the probability will increase even more so. To me our biggest challenges in order are: winning vs Denver, winning vs Pitt, indi L, mia L.
If after next week we win, Mia has 1 L and Ind has 1 L, our play off chances are 25%. I would personally guess our probability is probably closer to 50%.
Just some fun nerd math for a Sunday evening.
I don't know how the models work, but if you are calculating every games as 50/50, you get this:
Bengals beat Denver (.5 chance) x Bengals beat Steelers (0.5 chance) x Chiefs beat Denver (0.5 chance).
The chances Indy wins out would be 25% (.5 x .5). So the chance they DON'T win out would be 75%. .75.
If you are 50/50 ing every game, the chances the Dolphins win out is 12.5% (0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5). The chances they don't? 87.5%.
So, 0.5 (Bengals beat Denver) x 0.5 (Bengals beat Steelers) x 0.5 (Chiefs beat Denver) x 0.75 (chance Colts fail to win out) x 0.875 (chances Miami fails to win out) = 0.08203125. 8.2%.
I guess that does not account for ties. But that has to be less than 1% per game. WAY under.
If Miami wins, our chances will go down.
