Yesterday, 07:54 PM
(Yesterday, 07:46 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: I don't know how the models work, but if you are calculating every games as 50/50, you get this:
Bengals beat Denver (.5 chance) x Bengals beat Steelers (0.5 chance) x Chiefs beat Denver (0.5 chance).
The chances Indy wins out would be 25% (.5 x .5). So the chance they DON'T win out would be 75%. .75.
If you are 50/50 ing every game, the chances the Dolphins win out is 12.5% (0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5). The chances they don't? 87.5%.
So, 0.5 (Bengals beat Denver) x 0.5 (Bengals beat Steelers) x 0.5 (Chiefs beat Denver) x 0.75 (chance Colts fail to win out) x 0.875 (chances Miami fails to win out) = 0.08203125. 8.2%.
I guess that does not account for ties. But that has to be less than 1% per game. WAY under.
If Miami wins, our chances will go down.
I don’t know how they calculate it, but I’m certain they are calculating chance, not probability. And those are very different things. My math is right, the way I was grouping scenarios of mia getting 1 L or more, indi 1 L or more, etc.
