Bengals Win Out + Broncos & Colts go 2-3, Dolphins go 3-2 & WE'RE IN!!!

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-28-2024, 10:43 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: It’s obviously not the end all be all, just like any other advanced stat. As for Hunt; I copied this explanation from a thread on another board about the Chiefs rushing success rate as a team. They were basically discussing how KC could be so high despite having such a non-explosive running game.

Success Rate starts with the idea that not all plays in football have the same objective. On first and 10, a two-yard run would be considered a bad result; on third and one, that same two-yard run would be celebrated for moving the chains. This means we can't just use stats like yards to measure how effective an offense is. Instead, Success Rate shows us how effective players and teams are at staying on schedule and creating productive plays. As a result, a successful play depends on the context. We define it as a play that gains at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down.

Yeah, I read how it's calculated... but if you run for 4 yards on 1st and 10 and then 0 yards on 2nd and 6 you have a 50% success rate which puts you above league average (49.4% this year, apparently) despite having 0 first downs and a 2.0ypc. 

Meanwhile if you have 3 yards on 1st and 10, and 7 yards on 2nd and 7 you have the exact same 50% success rate despite having gained a first down and having 5.0ypc.

I just can't buy into it and it's not because it's an advanced stat, but because I just don't think it's a particularly good one.