Yesterday, 01:47 PM
There's multiple ways to calculate success rate; One is the aforementioned 30% on first down, half on second down and all on third down and the other is by leveraging expected points added. If you add positive expected points, then it is considered a successful play. Success rate tells a very specific story. It favors players who are consistent and, perhaps more importantly, offenses that are consistent. In the eyes of success rate, a 70 yard TD run and a nine yard run on first down are the exact same, which is a successful play. Below is a chart plotting rushing consistency for Kareem Hunt, Saquon Barkley, and Chase Brown.
![[Image: XnhMlCO.png]](https://i.imgur.com/XnhMlCO.png)
This chart is showing the likelihood that a player gets at least X yards which are displayed on the horizontal axis. Chase Brown is about as consistent as Barkley until you hit the four yard mark. That is where Saquon starts pulling away until they hit the 10+ range, where Brown closes the gap again. For Kareem Hunt, he immediately falls off at a neutral gain. He is a notable tier below both guys. The Chiefs have ran a ton of plays this year, leading the league in attempts and are 7th in rushing attempts. Kareem is likely getting favorable down and distances to run the ball which are boosting his success rate stats.
This chart is showing the likelihood that a player gets at least X yards which are displayed on the horizontal axis. Chase Brown is about as consistent as Barkley until you hit the four yard mark. That is where Saquon starts pulling away until they hit the 10+ range, where Brown closes the gap again. For Kareem Hunt, he immediately falls off at a neutral gain. He is a notable tier below both guys. The Chiefs have ran a ton of plays this year, leading the league in attempts and are 7th in rushing attempts. Kareem is likely getting favorable down and distances to run the ball which are boosting his success rate stats.
