Tee vs a NEW D

[*ochocincos*]

(12-28-2024, 12:14 AM)Whacked Wrote: I think most here would agree that:
1. Our O is anywhere from an 8 to a 10 (let's call it a "9")
2. Our D is anywhere from a 1 to a 3 (let's call it a "2")

For next season, would you rather:
A. Spend loot to keep Tee....and maintain this "9"...but not be able to rebuild this trash D
(Pray some inexpensive pieces can be found to shore up the D a hair)
-OR-
B. Lose Tee, probably slip to a 6-7
(It's not just about Tee's abilities but he commands attn and makes Chase better too)
AND
Spend loot to have a D that is mid-tier ...let's go w a 5-6

The way you word this makes it sound very one-sided, and I don't think that's fair.

So let's help put the "mediocre" defense into perspective.
If mediocre = in the teens among defensive rankings...
You'd be looking at ~22-23 points per game allowed.
Right now, Bengals are at 26.1 points allowed per game, sitting at 29th.
Bengals lost 3 games by 3 points or less this season.

Higgins is currently averaging 78.0 yards per game, which would average to ~1300 yards in a season if playing a full season.
But he's missed 10 games in the past two years, so he's more typically in the 1000-1100 yard range.
He's never had 1100+ yards in a season ever.

A "typical" WR2 is usually going to average around 700-900 yards in a season.
So on average, you're looking at between 6-18 yards less per game average.
A "typical" WR2-level production of 700-900 yards can be found fairly cheap and easily, and you have a decent chance to be able to get that level of production from a draft pick too.
In this past draft, there were actually 3 WRs who have put up 1000+ yards as rookies - Nabers (1140), Thomas (1179), and McConkey (1054). 
All were taken within the Top 35 picks though.
To get a guy to contribute like Higgins without paying the premium, Bengals will likely need to take a WR with their 1st round pick. There may be one or two guys in this draft class who may be able to do that (Egbuka?), but this upcoming draft class isn't as strong as the previous one.

For those that may remember, we saw similar arguments last offseason when it came to replacing Tyler Boyd.
Some thought there was no way they were going to be able to replace his production, but the Bengals adapted and covered his production between a boosted target share for the TE (Gesicki) and the new WR3 (Iosivas).
Bengals could (and should) look to do something similar if they can't get a guy quite to the caliber of Higgins to replace him. I especially like the first-round TEs in this draft class as possibilities if we want a true 2nd option in the passing game, a la what the Chiefs had with Hill and Kelce.

But now pivoting back over to defense...
For me personally, I'd be ok with maybe closer to 10th best offense (currently 6th) if it meant the defense could jump to mediocre (10-15 spots).
Right now, this team feels very much like the mid-2000's Bengals where that elite offense was hindered by Bresnahan's bend-don't-break defense and sometimes would break, resulting in more losses than expected because the defense just sucked.

Heck, a middle-of-the-pack defense gained via FA can turn into closer to a Top 10 defense if they can get lucky with 1-2 early draft picks on defense to go along with it.