First Mock try.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-12-2025, 02:56 PM)Whatever Wrote: There's no real perfect way to predict.  

Generally speaking, for a sim, each team will be programmed with a priority list for needs.  There will be a certain range of "reach" assigned per round per priority.  And, so you don't get the same results over and over, there's likely a bit of a random element, like the reach potentially varying or a team taking a lower rated player at the same position (to simulate individual team big boards).  I would suggest looking at Drafttek, as it's an early sim that explains the methodology pretty well, but it's never been one where you can do your own mocks.

Players often slide due to depth of a class as relative to team needs.  For example, it's a loaded DT class, so you'll usually find value there late as teams address that need earlier.  That's something that a sim factors in relatively well, where a mock strictly based off prospect rankings won't.  Vice versa holds as well.  A prospect may be ranked lower, but gets reached for due to lack of talent at the position in front of them.

Trades are kinda meh, either way, and I don't typically like to use them for "serious" mocks.  A sim may offer a great trade seemingly randomly while a a mock not using a sim may find the user "rationalizing" a trade down that they really want regardless of how realistic it really is.

Both have merits.  Both have flaws.  You do you.

I don't go to DraftTek ever since getting a security alert on that site once a few years ago.