OPS - What is the target?

[CJD]

(04-07-2025, 03:34 PM)ochocincos Wrote: For some (many?) of us, we grew up on batting average and on-base percentage being the metric to judge good hitters.

OPS isn't technically new, but it's become a more predominant metric in judging good hitters nowadays.

Given I'm not nearly as plugged into baseball as I am football or hockey, I wanted to know what is considered a good OPS.

Per this article, an average hitter will have around .750 OPS.
A good hitter should have .800 or better.
An elite one will have .900 or better.

https://brucebolt.us/blogs/news/whats-a-good-ops-in-baseball?srsltid=AfmBOorYi2OGllqr8nHB4Pi3hu_qK9qrGrgp0QrSDEhyGHAEPi8xkF38

If we use this measurement, Reds only have one full-time "good" hitter right now (McLain) and one average hitter (EDLC).
Trevino has the highest OPS, but he's splitting time with Wynns at C right now.

Should the Reds look to use Trevino as DH on off-days from catching, especially once Stephenson is back?
Are the Reds going to be able to survive with ~3-4 guys hitting >.750 OPS?

My thoughts are yes to Question 1, no to Question 2.

Your thoughts?

Fangraphs has a series of articles that they published back in 2010 through 2015 that does a really good job of charting what the tiers of quality are for each stat. I know 2010 is old, but I don't think the tiers have changed all that much since. For example, in their article on OBP, they have a chart that shows an OBP of 0.290 is "awful," whereas an OBP of .320 is "average" and 0.390 is "excellent." This series of articles has really helped me contextualize the stats that are being thrown at us all the time in baseball.

When it comes to OPS, their chart shows 0.570 is awful, 0.600 is poor, 0.670 is below average, .710 is average, 0.800 is above average, 0.900 is great and 1.000 is excellent.

They have a bunch of other sabermetric stats too if you're curious, https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/offensive-statistics-list/

They also have pitching stats here: https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/complete-list-pitching/

I'd caution against using the players' stats for this particular year, as we are only 11 games into the season. One or two good games can skew a statline when the sample size is that small. I'd focus on career stats, and when it comes to that, the best hitters on this team, by OPS, are:
1. Matt McLain (Career OPS 0.864)
2. Elly De La Cruz (Career OPS 0.770)
3. Tyler Stephenson (currently injured) (Career OPS 0.770)
3. TJ Friedl (Career OPS 0.764)
4. Spencer Steer (Career OPS 0.753)
5. Austin Hays (currently injured) (Career OPS 0.745)
6. Jeimer Candelario (Career OPS 0.731)
7. Jake Fraley (Career OPS 0.730)
8. Gavin Lux (Career OPS 0.706)
9. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Career OPS 0.697)
10. Santiago Espinal (Career OPS 0.683)
11. Jose Trevino (Career OPS 0.641)
12. Austin Wynns (Career OPS 0.611)

Then there's players like Jacob Hurtubise and Blake Dunn who have less than 100 career at bats between them, so you can't really take their career stats in the majors to mean much, but they're currently in the .500s for OPS.

There are other factors to consider. For example, CES is fairly low on the list, but he only has 371 career at bats, which is less than a full season's workload. This is due to being called up halfway through 2023 and being injured in 2024. 

For someone like CES, you might look at his minor league stats, where has has a career 0.990 OPS. Minor league stats don't really translate 1 to 1 to the majors, but they show he was definitely an elite hitter in the minors, so the expectation is that he reaches that point in the majors too.

Similar situation for Matt McLain, but in the opposite direction, as he also only has 393 career at bats for similar reasons. 

Then there are veteran players who are likely not going to hit at their career OPS due to age, like Jeimer Candelario.

But that's the basic tier list of hitters on this team. 

Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson, Elly De La Cruz, and maybe CES have the potential to be above average to great hitters.

Friedl, Steer, Hays, Candelario, Fraley, and Lux have the potential to be slightly above average hitters.

And then the final 3, Espinal, Trevino and Wynns, are below average to poor hitters.