Yesterday, 02:15 PM
(04-17-2025, 02:34 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: You are correct, but that does dismiss the facts it is common for first round picks to not being a stud in year 1 or never. The further the pick is from #1, the more likely the pick is not a stud.
I think fans get in their heads since it is the 1st round, teams are idiots if they miss. Reality is the 17th pick in the draft is not close to the 1st pick of a non-QB in the draft. I mention QB as many teams draft a QB in first 5 rounds only for it to fail miserably.
I have always said once a player is drafted, it is irrelevent when they were picked. You are correct many 3rd round picks and later outperform 1st round picks so in the end, a team can miss on a 1st round pick, but hit big time on the 4th round pick making it a wash as far as success rate.
I hope we hit a homerun, but my point is it is far from a slam dunk for many reasons to performance to injury will determine a 1st round player's success.
Last 5 at #17:
2024: DE Dallas Turner, Bama, MIN
2023: CB Christian Gonzalez , Oregon, NE
2022: OG Zion Johnson, BC, LAC
2021: OT Alex Leatherwood, Bama, LV
2020: WR CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma, DAL
Last 5 at #10:
2024: QB JJ McCarthy, Michigan, MIN
2023: OT Darnell Wright, Tenn, CHI
2022: WR Garrett Wilson, Ohio State, NYJ
2021: WR DaVonta Smith, Alabama, PHI
2020: OT Jedric Wills, Bama, CLE
The WR's and Gonzalez are very good. Avoid the Bama OT's.
HR's in the bunch? Lamb, for sure. Gonzalez is a triple. Wilson & Smith XBHs for sure 2/5 at 10 and 2/5 at #17. I think Wrightvisxan EBH, too. 3/5 at #10.
The rest are iffy. Leatherwood an outright bust. Wllls very disappointing. McCarthy is in that region as well.
Johnson & Turner have been OK. Singles.
