What Would Your Draft Have Been?

[Luvnit2]

(05-06-2025, 11:06 AM)Whatever Wrote: To me, spending his rookie year on ST's, the next two as the 3rd LB/sub package player/primary backup, then assuming a starting role in Year 4 is a perfectly reasonable career plan for a 4th round pick.  And that can be accelerated if Carter earns more PT and/or Wilson or Pratt gets cut/traded.  

Looking at the '21 draft, as it's a full rookie contract cycle, only 12 of 38 players drafted in the 4th recorded at least one year as a primary starter per PFR.  12 of those players were also out of the league entirely by 2024.  To break it down even further, only 9 players were multi year primary starters(which seems to be your expectations), and only 1 made a Pro Bowl.  Conversely, 13 of the players that were still in the league last year were playing for a team other than the one that drafted them at some point during those four years.  

So the odds are as follows for a 4th rounder based on the '21 class...

Pro Bowler 2.6%

Multi year starter 21.1%

Eventual Starter 31.6%

Cut before the end of rookie deal 65.8%

Out of the league entirely within 4 years 31.6%

I have a hunch this model holds true almost every year. A team hits on a pro bowler 2.6% of the time and that is the guy our fans prop up. Yes, it happens, but not often.

Also, Volson will be on the multi yesar starter list in 2022. My point being assuming all on the multi year starter list are good NFL starters is also not true. He was a 4th round pick also.