02-02-2016, 09:13 PM
(02-02-2016, 08:26 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: no no no no no. There is a mean, and the draft is set up in a way so that good teams regress towards the mean and bad teams improve to get towards the mean.
That is the theory behind it, but theories are theories and it doesn't always work that way.
If there was no free agency, the system may actually work as intended, but free agency opens the door for disasterous signings and finding golden nuggets players that skew the whole system.
The Patriots have done a great job in free agency, as well as making the most of their draft picks, so they haven't regressed.
The Browns have bombed in their drafts and haven't helped themselves with any great FA pickups, so they haven't improved.
Take a Team like the Panthers though. They draft Cam Newton and Luke Keuchly, improving the team drastically. They continue to draft well and also bring in workable vets like cotchery, ginn, davis and other starters on defense. They progressed all the way to the top!
Sure, in theory... but as long as there's FA, you'll have FA like DeMarcus Ware taking less money to play for a Super Bowl contender. As long as you have the draft, you'll have the occasional Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, who screws up all sorts of balance for the next decade and a half.
Every team Peyton Manning has been on and made at least 1 start each year, has gone a total of 191-81. So as long as Manning makes 1 start, the team has averaged slightly better than 11-5. That's a SEVENTEEN year sample. The theory of mean gets blown right out of the window when reality hits.
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