02-12-2016, 04:23 AM
In the last 10 drafts (not counting supplemental drafts, mostly because that would be a pain in the ass for me) but counting undrafted players, there have been 272 Pro Bowl players brought into the NFL. Here is the breakdown of how they were brought in.
1st Round: 119 (43.75%)
2nd Round: 49 (18.01%)
3rd Round: 20 (7.35%)
4th Round: 23 (8.46%)
5th Round: 13 (4.78%)
6th Round: 14 (5.15%)
7th Round: 5 (1.84%)
Undrafted: 29 (10.66%)
So if you're looking to get Pro Bowlers...
It's actually statistically better to have one 1st Round pick rather than two 2nd Round picks.
It's also better to have one 2nd Round pick rather than two 3rd Round picks.
3rd and 4th Round picks are roughly equal in value.
5th and 6th Round picks are also roughly equal in value.
7th round picks are basically useless.
There is a better chance of you getting a Pro Bowler from the undrafted pool than any other round after the 2nd.
So trading your 1st Round pick for a 2nd Round and 3rd Round pick, actually nets you a loss of a 18.39% chance to draft a Pro Bowler. You would need one 2nd, THREE 3rds, and one 5th just to come out ahead a mere 1.09%. Of course you would probably get more okayish players.
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DISCLAIMER: Obviously not all Pro Bowlers are equal. Teddy Bridgewater (1st) and Russell Wilson (3rd) aren't the same. Just like Andrew Luck (1st) and Tyrod Taylor (6th) aren't the same. Not commenting on the quality of player (maybe would be better with All-Pros, but that's more of a pain). It also doesn't break down the rounds into first half and second half or anything. This is just an informative straight number thing to do with as you please.
1st Round: 119 (43.75%)
2nd Round: 49 (18.01%)
3rd Round: 20 (7.35%)
4th Round: 23 (8.46%)
5th Round: 13 (4.78%)
6th Round: 14 (5.15%)
7th Round: 5 (1.84%)
Undrafted: 29 (10.66%)
So if you're looking to get Pro Bowlers...
It's actually statistically better to have one 1st Round pick rather than two 2nd Round picks.
It's also better to have one 2nd Round pick rather than two 3rd Round picks.
3rd and 4th Round picks are roughly equal in value.
5th and 6th Round picks are also roughly equal in value.
7th round picks are basically useless.
There is a better chance of you getting a Pro Bowler from the undrafted pool than any other round after the 2nd.
So trading your 1st Round pick for a 2nd Round and 3rd Round pick, actually nets you a loss of a 18.39% chance to draft a Pro Bowler. You would need one 2nd, THREE 3rds, and one 5th just to come out ahead a mere 1.09%. Of course you would probably get more okayish players.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISCLAIMER: Obviously not all Pro Bowlers are equal. Teddy Bridgewater (1st) and Russell Wilson (3rd) aren't the same. Just like Andrew Luck (1st) and Tyrod Taylor (6th) aren't the same. Not commenting on the quality of player (maybe would be better with All-Pros, but that's more of a pain). It also doesn't break down the rounds into first half and second half or anything. This is just an informative straight number thing to do with as you please.
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The 2021 season Super Bowl was over 1,000 days ago.