03-04-2016, 04:42 AM
(03-04-2016, 04:16 AM)phil413 Wrote: A lot of this is a solid take, especially the injury pool. We see pool numbers thrown around but you're right they pretty much pull of their on PS anyway so the raise isn't that much so that could be chipped down a bit or take it out of the money rolled over if another rare Larry Johnson scenario happens. I wanna touch on point 5 regarding their own guys. I see what you're spelling out regarding Dre and Kevin, but I don't know that actually reducing their numbers is needed. You work toward a long term deal, but I can't see either guy conceding their 2016 number nor the team's need to. You could tell Zeitler you'd make 3/4 of his number guaranteed if he signs for X dollars and lower it 15%, but he knows you aren't cutting him so why not focus on future guaranteed money? Let him be the highest paid guard, he knows you did it because you had to (in part because the rookies were and are still somewhat unknown). He also may be the highest paid guard on the market when he hits it, and even if Cincy has a history of paying a tackle before a guard that doesn't lower what the market will actually pay him. So rather than fight him for 1M this year, boost his guaranteed money in a long term deal if need be. I also suspect that they'll draft a mid round G/C type and hope to eek out another year from Whit as OL insurance in general if Zeitler hits the market.
As for Dre, the team is in a weird spot. He has played well enough to start, and actually handled some situations better than thought of but he hasn't wowed anyone into another deal. His deal is more about the corner position itself. If you're right about point 10 (I'm thinking top 3 rounds) then they still don't play rookie corners much anyway so that could be another "we like him but we still need insurance" situations. Ideally, they need a 2 year player at least to bridge the gap between a rookie, Dennard coming off the injury and the tweener with potential Shaw. Rather than pay a premium on Dre now, if Jones can't be that short term fix then they'll have to add a vet on his last legs like Cromartie or 1st rd bust like Claiborne as reasonablly cheap depth to get to next year. Even if I didn't pick the best players, you catch my drift, the types that Pacman and Newman were when they got to Cincy. It wouldn't impact the draft and is a nicer alternative to giving Dre the reasonably big deal he may need to actually sign a contract. Those two signing long term would get something productive done this offseason, but I don't know if they actually will sign nor if they'll give up much in terms of cap relief this year given their situations.
I don't know what their cap hits would be this year, but the incentive to sign a long term deal is injury and guaranteed money. If they get hurt this year it will diminish the value of the next contract. It's a risk benefit thing. Is the risk of injury worth the benefit of a potentially higher pay day next year? Or does the benefit of slightly less guaranteed money outweigh the risk of injury diminishing their next contract even more?
