Peyton Manning: My record with Marvin Harrison won’t be broken

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-19-2016, 06:31 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Well even I wouldn't guarantee it, that's why I've said all along that it's just not "likely". Outside of that 17 TD season for Gronk, he's had 10, 11, 4, 12 and 11 TDs, so the 17 number looks like the outlier.

And Gronk has led the team in TDs every year expect 2012, when Edelman led the Pats with 6 TDs. In short, a monster season in the TD department (around 17 scores or more) isn't likely either.

You add up all those things (Brady being 39 years old, Gronk's injury history, plus the slim odds of a monster TD season) and the odds look pretty dang small. Add in the fact that the Pats just made a big move in picking up Martellus Bennett, who will surely take some targets away from Gronk.

Interesting thing is Gronk's 17 TD season came with Aaron Hernandez's best season/most playing time. So I am certainly not agree that Bennett will make Gronk worse. If anything, most pass catchers get better when there's someone to take at least a little bit of heat off of them.

As for the TD numbers, the 10, one of the 11s, and the 12 came in 11, 11, and 12 starts, respectively.
Impressively enough, in Gronk's 69 starts he has caught 59 TDs, or 0.855 TDs/start.
Compare that to his 6 TDs in the 11 games he played in that he didn't start, or 0.545 TDs/non-start.

So if (and this is the big if part) he starts all 16 games in a season, he should get between 13 and 14 TDs (13.68, specifically) at that rate.





(This is just me getting curious and doing the math/deciding to share it more than trying to argue any point.)