04-08-2016, 10:21 PM
(04-08-2016, 12:39 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: He had lost one fumble since week 2, so he still had a very low risk of fumbling... I think they liked Gio style in that situation.. he tends to carry with both hands over the ball more often than Hill.. but to act like Hill was a fumble risk does not bare out in the stats. He lost a total of 3 fumbles in the regular season... He had 238 rushes and receptions. So he lost 3 out of 238 touches going into the playoffs. He actually had around a 99 percent odds of not losing the fumble. I think those were very good odds
I disagree with your analysis, even though the numbers are not that far off. Lets take a moment to include all the rushing fumbles in his 2 year career. He's fumbled 8 times in 445 career carries. For a fumble rate of 1.75%. So he has about a 98.25% chance of not fumbling. As I said, your "numbers" are pretty darn close. But when we put those numbers into context, the picture isn't pretty.
The only running backs that are fumbling at a rate higher than Hill's 1.75% are Ryan Matthews (3.77%), Ameer Abdullah (2.80%), Matt Jones (2.78%), Melvin Gordan (2.72) and James Starks (2.04%) - three rookies and two backups.
http://www.cincyjungle.com/2016/1/18/10780184/Could-Jeremy-Hill-be-fumbling-away-his-place-in-nfl
To further put that into perspective, the NFL average fumble rate is 0.82%.
