07-20-2016, 08:42 PM
(07-20-2016, 08:21 PM)rob Wrote: It seems to me you are unable to read.
I never once said his fumbling is justified. I said to bet that he would fumble in the first game would be a terrible bet.
I would figure after you quote something, you would re-read it....
Nah, I read it and then commented on the 3 in 16 games with 4 in 17 games.... which means your 1 in 5.3333 turns into 1 in 4.25, which while still good odds for you, isn't nearly as good.
The rest was on you saying him being a fumbling machine was an extreme exaggeration. My post was saying the exaggeration is made for the reasons I then went on to list. The perception is made because he lost all his fumbles last year.
Not to mention that the 1 in 5.3333 and the 1 in 4.25 is dependent upon all his starts being equal, but they're not. The more important thing to measure is the fact that in 235 carries, he had 4 fumbles, or 1 fumble every 58.75 carries last year.
So the real thing you should be asking yourself is how many carries do you think Hill will get in Week 1? Because if the answer is 30, then it'd be closer to a 1 in 1.958 chance he will fumble. If you think he'll only get 10, then it's a 1 in 5.875 chance, if you believe last year was the rate he'll continue to fumble at.
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I would figure after you wrote a post, you'd look at it and say "Should I be a dick right out of the gates?" realize the answer is no, then rewrite your post on the message board you are new to.
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