07-06-2015, 10:36 PM
I know it is long, but hear me out on this. It's sort of my Da Vinci Code!!!!!
A different way to sum up the prospect hopes AJ McCarron and Andy Dalton....
One of my best friends and I had lunch today and talked sports. He's a life long Browns fan and I am a life long Bengals fan. Neither of us are homers by any stretch. I was talking to him about this thread and some of the arguments in both sides. He summed up my thoughts incredibly and I thought I would share because it might better describe what a lot of us less-than-enthusiastic Dalton guys are thinking when it comes to McCarron.
He brought up Bill Belicheck and how he once said that he doesn't focus on a players ceiling, but instead is more interested in their floor. Meaning: What's the worst the guy is going to be any given week? Basically, the thought is that he can game plan around that is more of a certainty than hoping a guy plays like a star every game. With Tom Brady in particular, his thinking was that even in Tom's worst games he was able to bring back or keep Michigan close enough to win at the end of games - even if he had been playing poorly most of the game.
With Dalton, his floor is abysmally low and that pendulum swings wildly based on almost no real trend. He can be a star one week against a strong opponent and then drop off and just have a terrible game against a weak one. What stinks as a fan is that if his floor was just a good or even average game it would be good enough with the talent around him to win against most NFL teams most weeks - and you can ride that kind of QB into a Superbowl. With AJ McCarron, I am hoping that AJ's floor is consistently higher than Dalton's and that he plays above it with more consistency.
Some stats to back up AD's inconsistency and show his floor and how many times he reaches it....
Game by game QBR as per ESPN for 2013 & 2014
NOTE: I am putting an * if they lost
2013
1 97.2 *
2 81.7
3 105.5
4 58.2 *
5 81.1
6 105.9
7 135.9
8 125.7
9 55.4 *(OT)
10 52.3 *(OT)
11 62.7
12 83.6
13 120.5
14 86.4 *
15 136.2
16 62.2
PO 67.0 *
2014
1 98.7
2 116.6
3 68.9
4 117.4 *
5 93.5
6 55.4 *
7 89.3
8 79.1
9 2.0 *
10 143.9
11 84.6
12 60.7
13 128.8 *
14 53.6
15 93.1
16 83.7 *
PO 63.4 *
- What does this mean? Compare it to (most) other good QBs: Rivers, Wilson, Alex Smith, Big Ben, Eli Manning, Romo and a host of others and you will see an occasional dip into a low QBR, but it is rare and typically few and far between on a season by season basis.
- Guys with similar erratic play and lows: Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, Joe Flacco (the only one who has won a Superbowl). Kaepernick gets a special mention here because he was erratic and had lows in 2014, but his QBRs in 2012 & 2013 were incredibly strong all the way through the season and the playoffs with only a dip or two.
Even more interesting is that none of the above low floor QBs made it past the 2nd round last year. The only two to make it out of the first round were Cam Newton (playing a beat up Cardinals team), and Joe Flacco (playing a familiar opponent in the Steelers).
Conclusion: For the Bengals to go far into the playoffs and be consistent the QB position doesn't have to throw 100+ ratings. Instead, it has to raise it's floor by (guessing) 15 points in QBR from the mid 50's into 70 or above territory. I don't care if that is AD, AJ MC, or some guy out on the street or whoever. If the floor of the QB position stays around the 50's the chances of winning in the playoffs drops off a cliff.
A different way to sum up the prospect hopes AJ McCarron and Andy Dalton....
One of my best friends and I had lunch today and talked sports. He's a life long Browns fan and I am a life long Bengals fan. Neither of us are homers by any stretch. I was talking to him about this thread and some of the arguments in both sides. He summed up my thoughts incredibly and I thought I would share because it might better describe what a lot of us less-than-enthusiastic Dalton guys are thinking when it comes to McCarron.
He brought up Bill Belicheck and how he once said that he doesn't focus on a players ceiling, but instead is more interested in their floor. Meaning: What's the worst the guy is going to be any given week? Basically, the thought is that he can game plan around that is more of a certainty than hoping a guy plays like a star every game. With Tom Brady in particular, his thinking was that even in Tom's worst games he was able to bring back or keep Michigan close enough to win at the end of games - even if he had been playing poorly most of the game.
With Dalton, his floor is abysmally low and that pendulum swings wildly based on almost no real trend. He can be a star one week against a strong opponent and then drop off and just have a terrible game against a weak one. What stinks as a fan is that if his floor was just a good or even average game it would be good enough with the talent around him to win against most NFL teams most weeks - and you can ride that kind of QB into a Superbowl. With AJ McCarron, I am hoping that AJ's floor is consistently higher than Dalton's and that he plays above it with more consistency.
Some stats to back up AD's inconsistency and show his floor and how many times he reaches it....
Game by game QBR as per ESPN for 2013 & 2014
NOTE: I am putting an * if they lost
2013
1 97.2 *
2 81.7
3 105.5
4 58.2 *
5 81.1
6 105.9
7 135.9
8 125.7
9 55.4 *(OT)
10 52.3 *(OT)
11 62.7
12 83.6
13 120.5
14 86.4 *
15 136.2
16 62.2
PO 67.0 *
2014
1 98.7
2 116.6
3 68.9
4 117.4 *
5 93.5
6 55.4 *
7 89.3
8 79.1
9 2.0 *
10 143.9
11 84.6
12 60.7
13 128.8 *
14 53.6
15 93.1
16 83.7 *
PO 63.4 *
- What does this mean? Compare it to (most) other good QBs: Rivers, Wilson, Alex Smith, Big Ben, Eli Manning, Romo and a host of others and you will see an occasional dip into a low QBR, but it is rare and typically few and far between on a season by season basis.
- Guys with similar erratic play and lows: Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, Joe Flacco (the only one who has won a Superbowl). Kaepernick gets a special mention here because he was erratic and had lows in 2014, but his QBRs in 2012 & 2013 were incredibly strong all the way through the season and the playoffs with only a dip or two.
Even more interesting is that none of the above low floor QBs made it past the 2nd round last year. The only two to make it out of the first round were Cam Newton (playing a beat up Cardinals team), and Joe Flacco (playing a familiar opponent in the Steelers).
Conclusion: For the Bengals to go far into the playoffs and be consistent the QB position doesn't have to throw 100+ ratings. Instead, it has to raise it's floor by (guessing) 15 points in QBR from the mid 50's into 70 or above territory. I don't care if that is AD, AJ MC, or some guy out on the street or whoever. If the floor of the QB position stays around the 50's the chances of winning in the playoffs drops off a cliff.
