07-08-2015, 07:24 AM
(07-07-2015, 06:21 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You are not taking the strength of opponents into account.
His 98.7 rating against the Ravens looks better than his 93.1 rating against the Broncos until you see that Dalton's passer rating against the Ravens was only 8.1 points higher than what that defense allowed on average (90.6), but his rating against the Broncos was 10.7 points higher than what the Broncos defense allowed (82.4).
The best pass defense (passer rating) he faced over the first 5 games was the #10 Patriots, and the #15 Falcons were the only other one that was even in the top half of the league. Over his last 7 games he faced three defenses better than the Pats including the #1 pass defense in the league (#1 Cle, #6 Hou, #8 Den).
Dalton's rating over the first 5 games (98.4) was 7.2 points higher than his rating over the last 7 games (91.2), but the defenses he faced over the first 5 games were weaker. So he might have played a little better, but the claim that he "fell apart" at the end of the year just is not true.
And the "let's pretend one game did not happen" is the silliest argument I have ever heard. He lit up the Saints on the road. You have to give him credit for that.
1. Please let me know when we started using passer rating against as the official statistic of pass defense. You're the first person I've seen using this, I wonder why? There is a specific reason the passer rating formula was created for a QB. While it works for defensive players and it can be fun to look at, it's not always telling the entire story. Neither are yards of course, but last time I checked we were using that as the metric until you decided you wanted to show your stats to make your boy Zampese look good.
2. I never said the Saints game didn't happen, I've given the guy plenty of credit for it and have even used that game as an example of Andy's strengths in other threads. The fact that you went back exactly 7 games is very telling though. It's typical Fred bullshit. Go back 6 and see what his rating is, go back 8 and see what his rating is. You picked 7 so the Saints game would be there and the Browns mess wouldn't be included.
The passer rating I showed from the last 6 games simply proves the Saints game was an anomaly of the end of the year games. There's no other game you can take out that causes the passer rating to jump like it does there. Let's not continue to act like we don't all see through your constant spin.
Anyone with eyes can see that Andy looked worse and worse as the year went on with the exception of a couple games in the last 10 or so. Do you have eyeballs? Can we talk about things without having to spin stats for a minute?
The playcalling was altered greatly by seasons end for Andy. Don't believe me? Look at his YPA for those games. Watch the games, watch Andy step into the pocket like a great QB like we don't usually see at the beginning of the year, then watch him look like he doesn't even know what a pocket is.
Honestly, I'm just done with this because you just pick certain threads and HAVE to be the contrarian. You refuse to admit when you're wrong and called out for this stuff (as I proved by the huge leap in rating when the Saints game is taken out compared to other games being taken out). He played well for 5 games, the wheels fell off, he looked good in a game or two after that, but generally he looked like crap for the rest of the year. Fredtoast saying otherwise doesn't change it, all of us with functioning eyes saw it without needing to manipulate all of the stats in the world to create an imaginary point.
