07-08-2015, 11:14 PM
In the past three years victors of NFL playoff games, including SBs, have scored an average of 29.85 points per playoff game. Losers have scored an average of 19.3 points per playoff game. I computed these numbers by simply averaging the winning and losing scores of each playoff game for the last 3 years.
When we get to the SB, these numbers go up. The victor has scored an average of 35 points (this number is somewhat bloated by the Seattle blow out of Denver) and the loser 21 points (somewhat lowered by the 8 points Denver scored against Seattle). But overall SB scores are higher than other playoff games (at least for the last 3 years it has).
One point that doesn't have its own stat is the winner doesn't make major mistakes, while the loser generally does. Last year it was the play call to pass and the subsequent INT that killed Seattle on the last play. The year before it was the first play of the game where the OC hiked the ball over Manning's head giving Seattle a free TD. There were other mistakes in these games, but these two mistakes stood out as the biggest blunders.
Simply put, teams which can put up these points and give up this few points are going win most postseason games.
To score 30 points in a game, on average, requires 4 TDs and 1 FG or 3TDs and 3FGs or some combination approximate to that. That's 1TD per quarter, plus a bit. Or 5TDs if you are talking a SB win.
Is our offense good enough to do this against a team also good enough to be in the playoffs?
To give up 20 or fewer points requires the defense surrender only 2TDs and 2 FGs or 1 TD and 4 FGs or maybe 3TDs max. This is really giving up 10 points per half.
Is our defense good enough to do this against a team which is also good enough to be in the playoffs?
Are the Bengals good enough to not make any major mistakes in a playoff game?
When we get to the SB, these numbers go up. The victor has scored an average of 35 points (this number is somewhat bloated by the Seattle blow out of Denver) and the loser 21 points (somewhat lowered by the 8 points Denver scored against Seattle). But overall SB scores are higher than other playoff games (at least for the last 3 years it has).
One point that doesn't have its own stat is the winner doesn't make major mistakes, while the loser generally does. Last year it was the play call to pass and the subsequent INT that killed Seattle on the last play. The year before it was the first play of the game where the OC hiked the ball over Manning's head giving Seattle a free TD. There were other mistakes in these games, but these two mistakes stood out as the biggest blunders.
Simply put, teams which can put up these points and give up this few points are going win most postseason games.
To score 30 points in a game, on average, requires 4 TDs and 1 FG or 3TDs and 3FGs or some combination approximate to that. That's 1TD per quarter, plus a bit. Or 5TDs if you are talking a SB win.
Is our offense good enough to do this against a team also good enough to be in the playoffs?
To give up 20 or fewer points requires the defense surrender only 2TDs and 2 FGs or 1 TD and 4 FGs or maybe 3TDs max. This is really giving up 10 points per half.
Is our defense good enough to do this against a team which is also good enough to be in the playoffs?
Are the Bengals good enough to not make any major mistakes in a playoff game?
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
