10-06-2016, 12:54 AM
(10-06-2016, 12:00 AM)WestCoastBengalsFan Wrote: Huh, to AJ? Really? I guess you're right what with him being such a short receiver and not that strong and all.
Fade routes in the redzone more than not just do not work regardless if your WR is "tall" (6'2"+).
I remember reading this article a number of years ago discussing the effectiveness of the play, especially as it relates to a tall WR being the target.
Granted it is from 2013 but is interesting nonetheless IMO:
https://www.fantasyindex.com/2013/06/19/factoid/the-fade-route-is-overrated
One key excerpt:
But the question is, does it make sense to try to lob passes into the back corners of the end zone, hoping your tall wide receiver with a mismatch and outjump the cornerback and pull it down for a score?
Well, of the 31 wide receivers in this study, six were guys who are either 6-4 or 6-5 – Megatron, A.J. Green, Randy Moss, Marshall, Marques Colston and Malcom Floyd. Collectively, that group caught only 35 of 97 passes attempts. All 35 of those throws went for scores, but that’s just 36 percent.
So the effectiveness (as it relates to this study sample) is extremely low at 36%. Yet, the counter point obviously is that each of those completions resulted in TD's. I would say there are much better options at utilizing a guy like AJ Green in the redzone other than targeting him on a play that has, at the absolute best, a 40% likelihood of achieving a positive result.
