Can Hill get 1,000 yards rushing ???

[Shake n Blake]

(11-25-2016, 02:25 PM)jonesy84 Wrote: I just did some math, and it doesn't look good for Hill.  I am factoring in very little receiving threats currently, so assuming opposing defenses will pack the box heavily.  Also assuming the Oline continues to look like crap.  So here's what I came up with:   I figure at minimum, 3 possessions per half, six for a whole game.  Run up the middle on first and second down, which we all know we will probably do, gaining on average 2.0 yards=  6 possessions * 2 carries (first and second down) = 12 carries per game * 2.0 average = 24 yards per game * 5 games left = only 120 yards.  So no, I guess he won't hit 1,000 after all....   now I know he will probably have more than 12 carries per game, as my estimate of 6 possessions/game is probably a bit low...but surely you can see where I'm going with this  LOL

Yes he will average way more than 12 attempts per game. He's averaged 13.5 per game with Gio. Without Gio, I foresee around 18 attempts per game. 

Also, Hill is not going to average 2.0 ypc. He's currently averaging 4.6. IMO, you are drastically overestimating not only how much a safety will be in the box (Dalton has proven he can get it done without AJ Green) as well as the impact that would have on Hill. Sure, moving the safety down will help opposing defenses, but no Hill is not going to average a horrific 2.0 per carry. 3.5 is more realistic.

So if Hill averages 3.5 ypc on 18 carries per game, that comes out to 378 yards in 6 games, which would give him 1001 yards on the season. I was actually figuring this out while writing this post and I'm surprised it's that close. Either way, I think 1000 yards is very realistic.