11-25-2016, 03:32 PM
(11-25-2016, 03:21 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Yes he will average way more than 12 attempts per game. He's averaged 13.5 per game with Gio. Without Gio, I foresee around 18 attempts per game.
Also, Hill is not going to average 2.0 ypc. He's currently averaging 4.6. IMO, you are drastically overestimating not only how much a safety will be in the box (Dalton has proven he can get it done without AJ Green) as well as the impact that would have on Hill. Sure, moving the safety down will help opposing defenses, but no Hill is not going to average a horrific 2.0 per carry. 3.5 is more realistic.
So if Hill averages 3.5 ypc on 18 carries per game, that comes out to 378 yards in 6 games, which would give him 1001 yards on the season. I was actually figuring this out while writing this post and I'm surprised it's that close. Either way, I think 1000 yards is very realistic.
OK, fair enough on all points. You did catch me exaggerating a bit (the frustration of this year is catching up with me). I guess more than anything I don't see why it would really matter whether Hill hits 1,000 yards or not, other than to achieve a statistical 'benchmark'. Whether he ends up with 1,001 yards, or misses it by a few on the under, this season has been a HUGE disappointment for our Oline and certainly also our running attack. Even if he hits 1,000 yards this year, unless we win out and Hill scores about 6 more touchdowns, I would have a hard time arguing that he has had a good year.
