Best way for us to win next year-fix the running game

[CJD]

(01-15-2017, 02:28 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I get this.  I really do.  But I also know that the best Bengal teams over the past 10-15 years were when they had a really good back to pair with good receiving threats.  Your point about a great RB being rendered useless behind a bad line isn't entirely accurate, either, if you look at the likes of Barry Sanders.  

The real challenge is to determine which is the bigger issue right now:  the offensive line or the RB?  It is easy to say the offensive line as Dalton got bludgeoned this year, but with Ced benched for Fisher, the line played fairly well.  The season was already pretty much wasted by the time Burkhead got his opportunity, but it wasn't for the Bills, steelers, and Texans when the Bengals played them.  Here is a breakdown of the final 6 games of the season comparing Burkhead and Hill:

                                        SEXY              HILL
Week 12 @ Baltimore:           5/29              12/21
Week 13 EAGLES:                 8/38              23/33
Week 14 @ Cleveland:           9/45              25/111
Week 15 steelers:                 7/32              20/43
Week 16 @ Houston:            12/42              7/8
Week 17 Ravens:                 27/119             OUT

Now, I will grant that Hill was probably experiencing a lot of injury problems in the Houston game, which led to him missing the entire Baltimore game, but you can see the difference between the two during that period.  I don't even remember which game had Ced benched...I think it was Philly.  Rex averaged more YPC than Hill in every game, even the Cleveland game.  Rex is also a much better route runner and receiver out of the backfield as well as a factor in special teams.  This isn't meant to be a Rex commercial as much as it is an indictment on Hill and defense of the offensive line, once Ced was out.  Their scheme is still too predictable.  They still can't seem to get one yard when needed.  But even with Hill's strong rookie season, I think a lot more of that should have been attributed to the offensive line.  

So, if Dalvin Cook is a "once every 5 year talent", should the Bengals take him?  I am starting to think that they should.   

I'll openly say that I am not the best at talent evaluation. I'm not a future scout like some people on this message board (not the OP, but people like Bfine and Wolf). 

It's so hard to determine when a good stat line in college is due to transcendent talent of the player, the talent level of the players around them (a big problem when evaluating Alabama players) or talent level of the players they are playing against.

I recently went back and watched a video of Jeremy Hill's best plays in college and he had a lot of punishing runs and break away runs that look very similar to Fournette's highlights today. Even looking at the stats, Jeremy Hill averaged 6.9 ypc in his sophomore year and Fournette has a 6.2 ypc career average (6.5 in his best year).

Now, I say highlights because this early on, I don't generally look at the play by plays for every game of most prospects, so I am only doing a top down look at these guys. So maybe, aside from the highlights, Fournette has more quality non-highlight snaps that make him a superior prospect to Jeremy, but they don't look all that different from a high level.

Dalvin Cook, I agree, is the better prospect between the two, but I don't know if he qualifies as a once every 5 year talent. That kind of evaluation I leave to the professionals. If he is truly a unique talent that will transform our offense, I would be fine with the pick. 

And your point about Rex is a good one. He came in and suddenly our running game is much better. That speaks very poorly of Jeremy. And I think he needs to be replaced anyway.

But Rex isn't a top 10 pick. If we can get a guy in the 3rd or 4th round that could replicate his kind of production in his limited play time, I think that would fix our running game as well, don't you think?