01-18-2017, 05:33 AM
(01-15-2017, 02:47 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I'll openly say that I am not the best at talent evaluation. I'm not a future scout like some people on this message board (not the OP, but people like Bfine and Wolf).
It's so hard to determine when a good stat line in college is due to transcendent talent of the player, the talent level of the players around them (a big problem when evaluating Alabama players) or talent level of the players they are playing against.
I recently went back and watched a video of Jeremy Hill's best plays in college and he had a lot of punishing runs and break away runs that look very similar to Fournette's highlights today. Even looking at the stats, Jeremy Hill averaged 6.9 ypc in his sophomore year and Fournette has a 6.2 ypc career average (6.5 in his best year).
Now, I say highlights because this early on, I don't generally look at the play by plays for every game of most prospects, so I am only doing a top down look at these guys. So maybe, aside from the highlights, Fournette has more quality non-highlight snaps that make him a superior prospect to Jeremy, but they don't look all that different from a high level.
Dalvin Cook, I agree, is the better prospect between the two, but I don't know if he qualifies as a once every 5 year talent. That kind of evaluation I leave to the professionals. If he is truly a unique talent that will transform our offense, I would be fine with the pick.
And your point about Rex is a good one. He came in and suddenly our running game is much better. That speaks very poorly of Jeremy. And I think he needs to be replaced anyway.
But Rex isn't a top 10 pick. If we can get a guy in the 3rd or 4th round that could replicate his kind of production in his limited play time, I think that would fix our running game as well, don't you think?
I think all the evidence has shown we have severly underestimated Rex Burkhead. At 215 he has elite, yes elite explosion and quickness. It shows in college, combine and when given a chance in the NFL. The knock on him was his long speed at the draft, but Mike Mayock pointed out his 40 film and it showed he had two horrible starts, jumping outside and running outside the left line both times. At his pro day he ran 4.5s and a low 4.6 and I have personally seen this guy play and dunk a basketball, and he is really crazy athletic.
The other thing with Burkhead is if used properly he is in rare company for a running back who can be utilized as a slot receiver, not alot of guys doing what he can transitioning out to that spot.
He is in some elite company when you crunch down his 3rd down percentage conversation rate. Then you have to add in his work ethic and mentality and you might have something special. With all that said, I don't believe it will manifest in Cincy, but he is special like Harbaugh said.
