Realistic "true" cap space for 2017

[*ochocincos*]

Every year, we hear the same thing about how the available cap space isn't truly what we think it is.
So this year, let's get ahead of the curve and figure it out.

It's been reported that the salary cap for 2017 should be anywhere from $165 mill to $170 mill. The true number won't be disclosed until end of Feb or start of March.
So for now, let's assume around the middle and guess $168 million.

The Bengals will carry over $6.5 million in cap space from the previous season. This will put them at $174.5 million (could be more or less once we find the true cap number in a month).

The cap sites account for the top 51 players, but teams will always count 53. More will be counted based on those injured and the cost of replacements.
From the numbers I'm seeing between Spotrac and OverTheCap, it looks like the cap space right now will sit around $44 million.

Now comes the Debbie Downer part...cap space reserved for the draft, injuries, etc.
Last year, our good friend Jim Owczarski posted an article on cincinnati.com that teams usually reserve around $6-7 million for draft picks. Given the increased number of draft picks, I think it's safe to say the Bengals will lean more toward the $7 million range.
So 44 - 7 = $37 million.

Teams also typically reserve anywhere from $1 million to $5 million for injuries. Given the Bengals typically lean toward the higher end, we'll say $4 million.
37 - 4 = $33 million.

Last, most teams spend around $1 million total on their practice squad.
33 - 1 = $32 million.

So obviously these are more guesstimations based on trends, plus we don't know the TRUE cap number for 2017 yet, but expect it somewhere between $30-35 million.
But this should give everyone a good idea of what players can be signed in FA.

Based on those numbers alone, the Bengals should be able to squeeze in contracts with their Big 3 (Zeitler, Whitworth, DK). If they do re-sign those 3, there will likely be no room for any other non-bargain bin FA.
However, there are a few key players the Bengals could cut to open up plenty of cap space...
Rey Maualuga - $3.67 million saved if cut
Adam Jones - $6.8 million saved from 2017, $6 million saved from 2018
Pat Sims - $1 million saved
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From just these three alone, the Bengals could save nearly $11.5 million in cap space in 2017. That could go a LONG way in retaining the Big 3, add in another back end FA (like Peerman), and even allow a signing of another impactful FA or two.

Jim's article about last year's cap space mentioned above - http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/nfl/bengals/2016/03/03/cincinnati-bengals-true-cap-space-2016-nfl-free-agency/81287746/