02-12-2017, 12:28 PM
(02-11-2017, 08:24 PM)BengalChris Wrote: Why is that dumb? Were the 31 other teams dumb for passing on him for 5 rounds? Were the Bengals dumb for taking him in the 5th? Were the media heads dumb for predicting him to be a 2nd or 3rd round prospect? Or was I dumb for pointing it out?
Please understand that I wasn't calling YOU dumb. I was saying that to look at where a player was drafted in a vacuum as it relates to what type of prospect he is or isn't is dumb. The draft doesn't happen in that way. Guys rise and fall for good or bad reasons and teams draft guys in different spots for different reasons. I look at those draft slot "value" assignments in the sense of what someone's talent/potential is vs where they are actually drafted. There were a lot of D-linemen and O-linemen last draft with 1st, 2nd, & 3rd round grades. So many in fact, that there was no way they were all going to go in those exact rounds due to the limited number of picks That doesn't mean that if a 2nd round guy is pushed down into the 3rd round that he doesn't have 2nd round potential or characteristics. It just means that other variables or things happened throughout the draft that just had the player getting looked over for other guys/positions.
Here is Westerman's NFL Draft profile. I like these a lot and find them to be really consistent and fair: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/christian-westerman?id=2555131
The draft round projection is just based on potential talent. There are more guys with grades for the 2nd/3rd round than there are picks. That finite number of picks means that some guys are getting pushed down a round or two due to volume NOT that they don't have ability.
Another great recent example of this was Marvin Jones. Teams made runs on receivers and he was one of the ones passed over for whatever reasons. He was graded as a 2nd/3rd round talent, but went in the 5th. http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/marvin-jones?id=2532884 The talent was clearly there, but the picks didn't fall for him to go that high.
Here's a list in order of prospect grade of O-linemen from last years draft: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-position/dt-by-position-input:ol
See where Westermen is ranked (11th) with a grade of 5.8? See where the other OGs went with the same or lower grade? They went higher. That means that, according to grade, the Bengals got a HUGE value in terms of draft position and potential. Where he actually went doesn't mean he loses talent or potential.
