03-21-2017, 01:33 AM
So I'm bored and want to write things I enjoy talking about. Even if this is all obvious talk read it anyways because I'm fabulous. So I believe my least favorite phrasing regarding the draft is the concept of "best player available" and the misuse of the term. I am now dubbing it "Most valuable player." Now of course that phrase has a dumb connotation because people always think of it being the best player around on the best team regarding the award. But people never really use the word value correctly.
Flashback to the 2012 draft. The Bengals draft Devon Still in the 2nd round. Despite the pick not working out it was considered a major steal and he would be great in rotation with Atkins, Peko, and Sims. Everyone is excited for our DT rotation. Then comes the end of the 3rd round from the pick we gathered because of the trade down for Zeitler. Brandon Thompson is selected. People are more excited (Me included) because we picked the BPA based on most expert's boards. But it wasn't a BPA pick. It was just a value pick. Of course those seem like similar concepts but let's make it a different position.
The Bengals draft someone considered the best kicker coming out of college. People are iffy on drafting a kicker but excited because he has been able to hit 50+ yarders on a consistent basis, which the Bengals haven't hit in about 15 years. Then comes the 7th round. We draft another kicker who is considered solid and might be as good as Shayne Graham in his better days. Well wait, what the hell? Why did we waste another pick on a kicker? We sure as hell don't need one now with the holy kicker coming to us. Who the hell cares if he was the highest rated player on the board?
Why the change in attitude? Of course kickers are different than a lot of positions but when teams are drafting, Bengals included of course, value is always the key word. There are 2 values and 1 other part still in consideration that people really hate to hear.
Value 1 is of course the ability of the player. How good is he really? On a scale when comparing just the traits he brings to his position, where does he rank against those within his position and outside of it?
Value 2 is positional value. This varies heavily for teams due to scheme and other factors. The #1 highest positional value for all teams is always QB. After that you may get DL or OL, then you may get CB, then maybe WR, or TE. As for the Bengals, I believe it is this: QB>OL>CB>DL>WR>S>LB>TE>RB>ST specialists. Which, based on investment, seems about right.
The 3rd factor is the word everyone hates - need. Need HAS to be applied when building a team and that's just facts. If need weren't a factor teams wouldn't invest tons just to get a QB. Need fills in the holes that allow your team to be functional, when taking the other factors into account.
As simple as it seems it's basically a matter of positional value (Depending on how you split up positions, it would be about a 1-10 to 15ish scale) times player ability (numbered grade) times need (on whatever scale but we'll use 1-10). Obviously this isn't in a mathematical sense when drafting, because teams aren't super into analytics yet and the formula I put up is 5th grade level. But this is the mental scenario gone through.
So scenario time - You have a RB that is considered a HoF level talent by your scouting department, and your RBs have been pretty bad for a while. However, there is a CB on the board who is also considered a very good player. That said, you have a couple of CBs who are good but not great. The RB is ranked about an 7.6 by your scouting department (IIRC, 8 is about the max on scouting grade scales). The CB is ranked a 6.9 which is still fantastic. Using the crappy math I provided from the previous amount, the RB would be valued at [7.6 (grade)x 2 (pos value) x 8 (need)]. That's 121.6. The CB is valued at [6.9 (grade) x 8 (positional value) x 2 (need)]. That's 110.4. Congratulations, you just draft Ezekiel Elliot over Jalen Ramsey.
I'm not going to waste time writing out a vice versa scenario because I think you all get it. And I'd like to remind you all again that the formula isn't a real formula but something I put together to help visualize it. Thanks for reading my obviousness of the night
Flashback to the 2012 draft. The Bengals draft Devon Still in the 2nd round. Despite the pick not working out it was considered a major steal and he would be great in rotation with Atkins, Peko, and Sims. Everyone is excited for our DT rotation. Then comes the end of the 3rd round from the pick we gathered because of the trade down for Zeitler. Brandon Thompson is selected. People are more excited (Me included) because we picked the BPA based on most expert's boards. But it wasn't a BPA pick. It was just a value pick. Of course those seem like similar concepts but let's make it a different position.
The Bengals draft someone considered the best kicker coming out of college. People are iffy on drafting a kicker but excited because he has been able to hit 50+ yarders on a consistent basis, which the Bengals haven't hit in about 15 years. Then comes the 7th round. We draft another kicker who is considered solid and might be as good as Shayne Graham in his better days. Well wait, what the hell? Why did we waste another pick on a kicker? We sure as hell don't need one now with the holy kicker coming to us. Who the hell cares if he was the highest rated player on the board?
Why the change in attitude? Of course kickers are different than a lot of positions but when teams are drafting, Bengals included of course, value is always the key word. There are 2 values and 1 other part still in consideration that people really hate to hear.
Value 1 is of course the ability of the player. How good is he really? On a scale when comparing just the traits he brings to his position, where does he rank against those within his position and outside of it?
Value 2 is positional value. This varies heavily for teams due to scheme and other factors. The #1 highest positional value for all teams is always QB. After that you may get DL or OL, then you may get CB, then maybe WR, or TE. As for the Bengals, I believe it is this: QB>OL>CB>DL>WR>S>LB>TE>RB>ST specialists. Which, based on investment, seems about right.
The 3rd factor is the word everyone hates - need. Need HAS to be applied when building a team and that's just facts. If need weren't a factor teams wouldn't invest tons just to get a QB. Need fills in the holes that allow your team to be functional, when taking the other factors into account.
As simple as it seems it's basically a matter of positional value (Depending on how you split up positions, it would be about a 1-10 to 15ish scale) times player ability (numbered grade) times need (on whatever scale but we'll use 1-10). Obviously this isn't in a mathematical sense when drafting, because teams aren't super into analytics yet and the formula I put up is 5th grade level. But this is the mental scenario gone through.
So scenario time - You have a RB that is considered a HoF level talent by your scouting department, and your RBs have been pretty bad for a while. However, there is a CB on the board who is also considered a very good player. That said, you have a couple of CBs who are good but not great. The RB is ranked about an 7.6 by your scouting department (IIRC, 8 is about the max on scouting grade scales). The CB is ranked a 6.9 which is still fantastic. Using the crappy math I provided from the previous amount, the RB would be valued at [7.6 (grade)x 2 (pos value) x 8 (need)]. That's 121.6. The CB is valued at [6.9 (grade) x 8 (positional value) x 2 (need)]. That's 110.4. Congratulations, you just draft Ezekiel Elliot over Jalen Ramsey.
I'm not going to waste time writing out a vice versa scenario because I think you all get it. And I'd like to remind you all again that the formula isn't a real formula but something I put together to help visualize it. Thanks for reading my obviousness of the night
