Footballoutsiders on Burkhead

[WeezyBengal]

(04-02-2017, 12:20 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Footballoutsiders uses some complex mathmatics to compare RBs.  They try to do things like give more value to a 4 yard run on 3rd and 3 than on 1st and 20.  They also adjust for game situation and opponent defense.  You can follow the links to get the full explanation (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb), but basically they come up with metrics called DYAR, that they claim measures a RBs "total value", and DVOA which measures "value per play".

Among the 42 RBs with at least 100 carries Ezekial Elliot was #1 in DYAR (340) and the Bills Mike Gillislee was #1 in DVOA (45.0%).

Burkehead only had 74 carries so he did not qualify among their "league leaders", but his DYAR (163) would have ranked 12th, and his DVOA (41.9) would have been second only to Gillislee.  You could agrue that Gillislee's 101 carries is not really that different from Burkehead's 74, but they have to draw the line somewhere.  The fact is that not many RBs have a lot of carries anymore.  There are 32 teams and only 25 RBs who had at least 160 carries (10 per game) last year.  That is why some people claim the position is losing value in the draft.

Interesting to note that among those RBs with at least 160 carries Gillislee's teammate LeSean McCoy was a run away winner in DVOA (28.1%) over 10 percentage points ahead of LeVean Bell (17.4%).  So Gillislee's numbers could be due to an elite system/scheme/O-line.

I find this wildly ironic coming from the guy that continues to defend Hill and who used to bash Burkhead. 

You mad fun of Bengals fans CONSTANTLY for wanting to keep Burkhead based on his limited production.