04-21-2017, 04:46 PM
(04-20-2017, 01:31 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I've noticed over the years that no matter who a team drafts...their fanbase generally feels like it is a good draft...unless a team passes on a popular local player.
Fans generally will say: My teams needs these positions, and if a team drafts those position guys...fans like it. They then project these players out to be starters. 7 new starters within the next 3 years!
The sad reality of the draft is that most of the guys you draft will be special teamers or out of the league within 3-4 years. You're lucky to get 2 solid starters. If you draft 3 solid starters, it was a really good draft. If you draft 4 starters it was a great draft. If you end up with multiple Pro Bowl players in one draft it was a generational draft.
I saw a stat that some 40% of 1st Round picks never go on to be a starter.
Another reality is that a lot of these guys may go against Pro-caliber competition in college maybe twice a year...so it's very hard to project out how they'll do in the Pros.
If drafting were as easy as selecting who Mel Kiper Jr had ranked the highest...then every team would be loaded...
Drafts represent hope for a fanbase...but if you look at the hit rate of a draft pick vs a free agent....the free agent with a track record probably makes it more on a percentage basis than a draft pick...
i was out west when Bill Walsh drafts and strategy turned a below par niner team into a dynasty. He was TYPICALLY getting 3-5 very good starters in every draft. Then too.. you need to DEVELOP that raw material.
In rd 2-5 he got Joe Montana, Charles Haley,Roger Craig, Guy McIntyre, Michael Carter,Jeff Fuller, Dwight Hicks,Brent Jones, John Taylor,Keena Turner,Dwain Board, and maybe 3-4 guys I'll think of later. Several of those were IMPACT but at a SMALL School. Others were GOOD prospects but..... the Niners coached them up to be STARS.
ANY great team is built on VISION, development,strategy... and some luck. the Big red Machine was all that.
They found Rose,Bench Griffey. Traded for Foster,Morgan ,Billingham. Developed pitchers. Big Klu made "average" guys good hitters. GSW....they drafted Curry,Klay,Dray without a top 5 pick then hired a guy who'd never been a coach. It worked.
You need VISION. I remember being VERY happy the Niners got Joe Montana. Then, later, Jerry Rice. You can WASTE real solid talent.
