Good Draft vs Bad Draft

[BonnieBengal]

(04-20-2017, 01:31 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I've noticed over the years that no matter who a team drafts...their fanbase generally feels like it is a good draft...unless a team passes on a popular local player.

Fans generally will say: My teams needs these positions, and if a team drafts those position guys...fans like it. They then project these players out to be starters. 7 new starters within the next 3 years!

The sad reality of the draft is that most of the guys you draft will be special teamers or out of the league within 3-4 years. You're lucky to get 2 solid starters. If you draft 3 solid starters, it was a really good draft. If you draft 4 starters it was a great draft. If you end up with multiple Pro Bowl players in one draft it was a generational draft.

I saw a stat that some 40% of 1st Round picks never go on to be a starter.

Another reality is that a lot of these guys may go against Pro-caliber competition in college maybe twice a year...so it's very hard to project out how they'll do in the Pros.

If drafting were as easy as selecting who Mel Kiper Jr had ranked the highest...then every team would be loaded...

Drafts represent hope for a fanbase...but if you look at the hit rate of a draft pick vs a free agent....the free agent with a track record probably makes it more on a percentage basis than a draft pick...

Great Point.  The NFL Network was showing the first rounds of several past drafts yesterday.  I started watching at 2011 and looking up every player I didn't know to see who had panned out and who hadn't.  I watched 2011 - 2014, and your 40% stat seems correct.  Cleveland alone though, must be about 80%  I swear.