Tempered Expectations for Draft Picks

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(05-11-2017, 08:22 AM)Sled21 Wrote: I disagree about Ross, and think he starts in heavy rotation right away. Although he is not just a track star playing football, he was drafted for his speed and his ability to stretch the field opposite AJ. Can't do that sitting on the bench. Even if they don't really throw to him a lot, I suspect he will see a huge portion of time on the field. If Marvin does not take advantage of having Green and Ross burning it on the outside taking the top off, while Eifert and Boyd work the middle and Mixon back there to pound the rock, then he does not deserve to be here.

I think I might have undersold how many snaps Ross sees, but I think he'll be more slowly worked in as he builds more strength. By week 10 I think he'll be 'starting'

(05-11-2017, 09:22 AM)grampahol Wrote: https://youtu.be/3flv5nWZgII

Interesting read although with young athletes it's tough to predict the future. Sometimes the guys you least expect to find success are the ones who quietly carve out a solid career while others are a flash in the pan guys who start off like real studs, but quickly fizzle out, running backs especially. They take a real pounding in a very short period. I read somewhere (don't ask) that RBs only average 2.x years before injuries do them in and those are the good ones.. They come into the pros already pretty banged up from college ball and the pros don't make it one bit easier. WRs are similar, but sometimes speed makes the real difference as they tend to avoid the back breaking tackles moreso than RBs.. 
I tend to shy away from long term predictions simply because most of them are still learning how to avoid serious injuries and quite often a 20 year old player is not the same person on the field as the 25 year old player. Heck, in 5 short years they're often considered 'grizzly veterans'..  I don't know of too many professions where that holds true. Maybe a baseball catcher.. They take a pretty good pounding behind the plate. 

The long term predictions are mostly for funsies, but it's also to make a point about what makes a good draft class which is what I think this class really was. Getting 2 good starters, an almost starter heavy rotation player, long term kicker, and key special teamer is absolutely great

(05-11-2017, 12:17 PM)jj22 Wrote: Given that this was the deepest defensive draft in nearly 2 decades, I hope we came out of it with more than some rotational guys. That would be a significant failure.

But that's what 95% of picks turn into (or worse). We can't get all the great players in a draft and getting good contributors is great

(05-11-2017, 12:36 PM)Whatever Wrote: I am thinking Malone may be taking the majority of the #3 WR snaps by the end of next year.  There just aren't many teams that can match up with Green on one side, Malone on the other, Ross in the slot, Eifert at TE, and Mixon a threat to come out of the backfield.

Completely disagree. From what I've seen Malone has a lot to develop still, and Boyd is going to still be a very good player in the slot. If Malone does develop and see time, it will be in 2018 if anything. Malone is someone that (currently) is just speed. This isn't a bad thing right now as we have a coach that is a great developer of talent. Receivers need suddenness in their game to maximize their abilities and Malone does not have that now. Situational deep threat is a great role for him


I know I'm beating my own dead horse here but it's important to note that one of our top 3 players will not have a career unless we get insanely lucky. Based on the research I've done Willis is the most likely to not have a strong career. We had 11 picks which was great because it maximizes our ability to get contributors, but half of them will not see anything significant for their career which is just the reality of the situation. The best contributors I see are Ross, Mixon, Lawson, and Elliot, with Malone, Wilson, and maybe Glasgow being special teamers and backend rotational players. Even that is an optimistic prediction though. But that sort of contribution will make us a super bowl level team if we acquire an offensive line