Tempered Expectations for Draft Picks

[Whatever]

(05-13-2017, 11:07 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Among all WRs in the league he was 53rd in receptions and 58th in yards.  So as a #3WR he ranked among what would on average be the top 2 WRs for each team (64)

Among the 58 WRs that had at least 50 receptions he ranked 46th in yards per reception.




Among rookie WRs he was 4th in receptions and 3rd in yards.




stats per 10 games with Green.........3.3 rec...34.9 yds...10.6 avg
stats per  6 games without Green.....3.5 rec...42.3 yds...12.1 avg



1 td is not great, but not horrible at all for a #3 WR.

There are 32 teams in the NFL and only 79 WRs caught as many as 3 tds.  So on average the #3 WR usually has fewer than 3 receiving tds.

But, whatever.....

He had a good number of catches and yards, but he also played on a team with a good QB and a poor record that was trying to come from behind a lot.  He was also effectively the #2 WR for over 1/3 of the year, and injuries at TE and RB increased the number of looks he got.  Defenses allowed him to get catches over AJ, LaFell, and Eifert because they knew he wasn't a big threat.  He was only 74th in yards/game.  He was healthy all 16 games, which boosts his numbers, but there were better WR's out there who missed time.

He had a lot of catches, but poor production per catch.  It's fair to wonder if someone else could have done more with those touches.

I stand corrected about his production dipping when Green went down, but it's also fair to point out that he did very little when he was asked to be a bigger part of the offense.  3.5 catches for 42.3 yards is poor production for a #2 WR.

108 WR's caught more TD's last year than Boyd.  Boyd has the most catches and 2nd most yards of any WR that caught one or zero TD's last year.  So, we're talking about a player that was tied for 53rd in catches, but 108th in TD's.  That's a vast disparity.

I'm not saying Boyd is complete garbage, but I don't see him ever being more than a Sanu/Caldwell type of player.