05-19-2015, 08:58 AM
(05-18-2015, 08:19 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I think we've lost 1 playoff game in the last 5 years, in which, we were favored.
Don't worry bfine, I'm here to help you. Let me explain why your insinuation of "The team/Marvin isn't that bad because we usually weren't favored anyway!" is a complete crock of shit.
1. Right off the bat, that means that Marvin can't lead a team to win as the underdog even ONCE out of 5 tries (actually 4 since we were favored twice NYJ/SD), and can't even win the 1 game (actually 2) where we were favored. When a logical person reads your statement, it immediately looks silly for this reason alone. You think you're giving the team/Marvin some slack, when in reality you're just further proving why they haven't been very good.
2. What were the lines in those games? Some people may be interested in that. I'm interested because I'm sure it will debunk your assertion even more...
Steelers -3 @ Bengals
Actual point differential: 14
Adjusted point differential w/ the spread: 11
So basically, for the slower crowd that wants to talk about Vegas odds mattering here, were the Bengals supposed to lose by 14??? No. If you want to bring up Vegas, you may want to know what you're talking about first. The Bengals were 3 point dogs, yet they lose by 14 and you're going to rationalize that by acting like it's not so bad since we weren't favored? Haha, good one. Let's keep looking at the odds since that's what you decided to bring up. Now, everybody remember, we were "supposed" to lose by 3, yet got blown out by 14.
Bengals -2.5 vs Jets
Actual point differential: 10
Adjusted point differential w/ the spread: 12.5
Texans -4 vs Bengals
Actual point differential: 21
Adjusted point differential w/ the spread: 17
Texans -4 vs Bengals
Actual point differential: 6
Adjusted point differential w/ the spread: 2
Bengals -2.5 vs Chargers
Actual point differential: 17
Adjusted point differential w/ the spread: 19.5
Colts -3 vs Bengals
Actual point differential: 16
Adjusted point differential w/ the spread: 13
Soooooooooooo, for those keeping track at home, what does this tell us?
It tells us that if you're going with the "odds matter" theme, then you have to give it an in depth look to see what the odds are really about. What the FACTS tell us, is that over the course of 6 playoff games under Marvin Lewis, the Cincinnati Bengals have given up.....*drum roll*
75 more points than they were "SUPPOSED TO" according to Vegas.
Next time somebody wants to bring up who is favored and who isn't in their argument, remember to look a bit deeper than just "hurr durr they weren't favored sometimes so Marvin iz gud".
