The Myth of Having to Go Into a Season With Cap Space

[rezolve11]

(08-17-2017, 10:30 PM)jowczarski Wrote: Everyone has philosophical differences on how they believe teams should be run. To each his own.

I'll state two facts.

1. In my now three years covering the team, I've never heard - not once - anyone in the front office "cry poor," on or off the record. I've never heard from a player, or even an agent, that they were told "we don't have the money." Think about that -- agents! Public perception is what it is and I know the history, but from April, 2015 til now, I've never heard it.

2. Re: releasing "old/bad" players = free up cap space = buy more good players.

Here's the thing: the Bengals pay Leon Hall the final $9M in his last year with a bad back and diminishing ability (and a Peko, and a Maualuga, etc.) for a very good reason. They structure their contracts in a way unlike most NFL teams. They don't give out the giant guarantees and signing bonuses that inflate the cap and make agents look good. And in order to have players take those deals - Dalton, Green, Atkins, Dunlap, Whitworth, etc. - they have to have a good reference point that those players will see nearly every dollar of that deal.

An example to show this. Bear with me:

Julio Jones
Per OverTheCap.com (use them, by the way): "Jones signed a five year, $71.25 million contract extension with the Atlanta Falcons on August 31, 2015. Jones received $47 million in guarantees including $35.5 million in full guarantees. The guarantee consists of a $12 million signing bonus and Jones’ salary that is paid in 2015 and 2016. If Jone is on the roster the 3rd day of the 2016 League Year, his 2017 salary of $11.5 million will become fully guaranteed."

That means it's really a 2-year deal for $35.5.

Take DeMaryius Thomas: "Signed a five year, $70 million contract with the Denver Broncos on July 15, 2015. The contract contains $35 million in fully guaranteed salary and $43.5 million of total guarantees. According to Mike Klis, Thomas received an $11 million signing bonus and will earn a guaranteed roster bonus worth $6.5 million. His $13 million salary in 2016 is fully guaranteed and an $8.5 million salary is injury guaranteed and will vest to fully guaranteed in 2017. There is a $4 million option due in 2017 that will buy back the 2018 and 2019 league year. If the option is not exercised the final two years of the contract will void."

That means it's a 3-year deal for $43 million.

You're kind of getting the point with deals....

Now, A.J. Green - better than Thomas, and I would say he's better than Jones - but that is a worthy argument.

Anyway, Green signed "four year, $60 million contract extension with the Bengals on September 12, 2015. All contracts details are currently from a report on ProFootball Talk that indicates Green received $26.75 million in full guarantees including a $15 million roster bonus paid in 2015...If Green is on the roster on the 3rd day of the 2016 league year he will receive a $6 million roster bonus."

Basically, Green agreed to a 4-year deal for $26.7 million guaranteed.

Now, WHY in the world would A.J. Green do that? Because he knows that he will actually play out this contract. He will play through the 2019 season and collect every penny of the $69.376 of his deal from 2015-19. And he will NEVER be asked to restructure, take less money, or push it forward. And WHY would he believe that? Because guys like Leon Hall, Michael Johnson, Peko, etc. all lived out their contracts.

We'll see in 2019 if Jones or Thomas or Dez Bryant have A) have been cut B) have been asked to restructure and take less C) played it out and earned every dollar.

Maybe they will. But I can nearly 100% guarantee you Green will.

Long way to explain that, but hopefully it helps.

I can't speak to whether that's the "best way" to do things. Or the "right way." But If you want to sign a talent like Green for basically half of his market value in guaranteed dollars ... you better have some equity with agents and players that you'll live up to your end of the contract.

EDIT: Oh, the rollover/unused cap space. I also can't speak to if that's the best way, or the right way, or if they should max the cap every single year or not. It's football management theory. But I'll tell you this, not every team you see winning "goes all in" and maxes to the cap. They don't. Some might in certain years. But most don't. Trust me and the NFLPA, which tracks this stuff to the dollar, other teams have hoarded more cash over the years than the Bengals have.

Thanks for laying this out, Jim. It's helpful to see!