09-04-2017, 06:13 PM
(09-04-2017, 05:01 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Yea, I think that may be why you're coming away from our drafts feeling bad.
Expecting 3 to 5 quality players (starters and back up/rotational players) is a lot to ask for every single draft. That provides virtually no room for error if you only have 7 picks (half of which are given ~10% of succeeding in the NFL just based on draft position)
That would require nearly every first, second and third round pick be a starter/quality back up or a 4th to 7th round pick stepping up and replacing one of those quality slots every year.
I think 1 starter, and 1 to 2 back ups is probably a better metric to measure your average draft, with 2 starters or 3 starters or more than 2 quality back ups making the draft great or elite.
2011, for example, I consider an elite draft. Starting QB, starting WR, starting guard. We didn't get anything else out of that draft, but 3 starters is a truly phenomenal haul in one draft.
2012 was an elite draft. Sure, only 2 players remain on the team, but Sanu, Zeitler and Jones were legitimate talent that was pried away from us due to the inflation of the free agent market. The fact that good free agents left proves the exact opposite of what you're positing (that our drafts have been mediocre). The fact that we lost 3 free agents from this class due to free agent overpayment is a testament to how well we drafted this year. At its height, that draft provided 4 starters and 1 quality back up (or 3 and 2, depending on what year we're talking).
2013, again, elite draft. 3 starters, 2 quality back ups.
2014 was a bit of a stumble because Clarke didn't work out and only god knows what is going on with Dennard, but we still got 2 starters and 1 quality back up out of that draft. You say you hate Bodine, but he is a starter and better than people give him credit for, due to his rough start to his career.
2015 is yet to be reaped, as we don't know just how good Ogbuehi and Fisher are, but if they become good starting tackles that keep Dalton standing, then that's a good draft too. Shaw, Smith, Uzomah and Kroft are back ups so I don't know how we're looking at it as a below average draft ass of now.
2016 is looking promising, with Vigil set to start and Boyd, Billings, Westerman, Core and Fejedelem all sticking as back ups and quality players.
In your analysis of each draft, you left out players who were still on the roster and serving as back ups and special teams players and you also did not account for good players that left via free agency.
That's not a metric by which you can measure drafting success and it's definitely the reason your outlook seems so bleak regarding our ability to draft.
This is a good post. You countered his claims with good solid examples while not belittling him. We need more discussions like this. Well done.
