10-30-2017, 12:39 PM
-Rookie contracts are 4-5 years in length. So you get a nice, generally cheap player for that time.
-The Bengals seem to value some positions more than others.
-The Bengals seem to set a value that they will pay a player and not budge from that number once market forces drive the price up. (Supposedly they offered Zeitler $5.5 million a year while DeCastro got $10 million.)
-The Bengals don't rely heavily on free agency, and typically sign guys to shorter deals.
In order to compete under these conditions, you need to stack 3-4-5 good to great drafts together in a row as some of your really good players that you draft will be leaving when their rookie contract is up.
To further complicate it, people tend to look at 1st Round picks as quality starters. But, in reality maybe 40% will ever be a starter for you. And even a lower percentage will be quality. So if you leave say a Guard go and draft his replacement...there's like a 60% chance that guy will be below average...and that's if he's a 1st Round pick. The odds decline as the rounds proceed.
It's a really hard model to compete under. You're constantly running in quicksand trying to replace losses of players.
Our past drafts have not been even average. That's why we're in the position we are now...more so even than coaching although coaching is an issue.
-The Bengals seem to value some positions more than others.
-The Bengals seem to set a value that they will pay a player and not budge from that number once market forces drive the price up. (Supposedly they offered Zeitler $5.5 million a year while DeCastro got $10 million.)
-The Bengals don't rely heavily on free agency, and typically sign guys to shorter deals.
In order to compete under these conditions, you need to stack 3-4-5 good to great drafts together in a row as some of your really good players that you draft will be leaving when their rookie contract is up.
To further complicate it, people tend to look at 1st Round picks as quality starters. But, in reality maybe 40% will ever be a starter for you. And even a lower percentage will be quality. So if you leave say a Guard go and draft his replacement...there's like a 60% chance that guy will be below average...and that's if he's a 1st Round pick. The odds decline as the rounds proceed.
It's a really hard model to compete under. You're constantly running in quicksand trying to replace losses of players.
Our past drafts have not been even average. That's why we're in the position we are now...more so even than coaching although coaching is an issue.
