Running in Quicksand

[Luvnit2]

(10-30-2017, 12:39 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: -Rookie contracts are 4-5 years in length. So you get a nice, generally cheap player for that time.
-The Bengals seem to value some positions more than others.
-The Bengals seem to set a value that they will pay a player and not budge from that number once market forces drive the price up. (Supposedly they offered Zeitler $5.5 million a year while DeCastro got $10 million.)
-The Bengals don't rely heavily on free agency, and typically sign guys to shorter deals.

In order to compete under these conditions, you need to stack 3-4-5 good to great drafts together in a row as some of your really good players that you draft will be leaving when their rookie contract is up.

To further complicate it, people tend to look at 1st Round picks as quality starters. But, in reality maybe 40% will ever be a starter for you. And even a lower percentage will be quality. So if you leave say a Guard go and draft his replacement...there's like a 60% chance that guy will be below average...and that's if he's a 1st Round pick. The odds decline as the rounds proceed.

It's a really hard model to compete under. You're constantly running in quicksand trying to replace losses of players.

Our past drafts have not been even average. That's why we're in the position we are now...more so even than coaching although coaching is an issue.

We have debated this 1000 times, we get it you hate our method and think FO is stupid. I agreed with you in the past that we did not go after that 1 or 2 missing piece(s) in FA. But, let's look at the Steelers who primarily use the same formula, just execute it much better. Their left OT Villaluega (spelling) was an undrafted FA cut by the Bengals, they turned him into a very good LT (we cut him). They drafted Pouncey and Gilbert with high picks (they do value center more than us as evidenced by 30 years of great centers. They drafted best WR in the NFL in round #6. They did make a trade years ago for Mitchell and this year pulled Hayden off waivers because he wanted to be a Steeler.

They hit it huge with 2 rookies already in Watt and JuJu. They hit it big with 2nd round pick Bell and guys like Truitt and Heyward. In the past they had struggled with DB's but Burns is progressing. They have a top slot corner who was a FA I believe and made team playing special teams named Hilton. They hit it big with Shazier.

My point is this, it is not the strategy as much as the execution of the draft and FA add ons. The Steelers get an A+ and the Bengals a C and that difference means great versus good or competitive. My big complaint is we won't attempt to trade or add in FA our mistakes. The Steelers did not prepare for Troy leaving via the draft so they went and got Mitchell for example. We sit on our hands versus admitting mistakes were made via the draft and fixing them.