Some interesting stats about Dalton and our pass offense

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(11-06-2017, 07:54 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I just recently discovered that you can look up any QB's stats when targeting specific receivers on Pro Football Reference. After studying up and crunching some numbers, here's some things that stood out to me about Dalton and our passing game:

1. Dalton really is throwing the ball away more this year. He's had 18 attempts that weren't targeting any receivers (throw away's), good for 7.6% of all throws. This percentage was only 3.7% in 2016. So he's throwing it away more than twice as often.

2. We're struggling a bit with getting the ball to our WR's. Last year, 60.6% of all attempts were aimed at WRs. This year we're down to 55.9%. Not only are we targeting WRs less often, we're also less successful when we do. Last year, Dalton had a 95.8 rating targeting his WRs. Leading the way were AJ Green (110.6) and LaFell (100.3).

This year, Dalton has a pathetic 72.5 rating while targeting WRs. Dalton's ratings with AJ Green (76.3) and LaFell (75.6) have plummeted. A big reason for this is that Dalton has already thrown twice as many INT's to WR's this year (8) than he did all of last year....but his completion rate to WR's is also down to 59.8%, compared to 64.2% last year. It's also worth noting that LaFell's yards/catch has fallen from 13.5 to 8.3 one year later.

3. In contrast, Dalton's rating to TE's (131.4) and RB's (116.1) are both up from 2016, when they were 91.9 and 97.2 respectively.

4. It's no wonder Boyd has been phased out of the offense. Dalton had a 77.3 rating targeting him last year. The worst of any of our top 10 most targeted receivers, regardless of position. Ross isn't even ready and Boyd still isn't getting on the field much.

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I'm sure some won't like this, but I think these are more signs that the line is even worse. Dalton has never been bad at getting the ball to his WR's before. They just don't have the time to finish routes and get open anymore. The pressure is also leading to more throw away's to avoid sacks (although some have been a bit premature). I also believe Dalton has always been a rythm QB. Kinda hard to get your rhythm behind this line, which is somehow worse than last year's.

It also looks like LaFell is washed up, but we keep throwing him out there for some reason. It also does the pass game no favors when the run game is 32nd in both yards and YPC. Opponents have nothing to worry about. Smother AJ Green with coverage. The run game won't beat you, nor will LaFell. Cover Green, pin your ears back and chase Dalton around. Not hard to stop our offense.

Btw, if anyone is interested, I can look up a different year and post the stats for comparison. I didn't feel like doing every year though. It's a lot of work.

This terrible line has many far reaching effects that a lot of people don't fully grasp.

Not only do WRs not have time to get open, when they do have time to let a play develop, there are so many in coverage, there is no open receiver to throw the ball to.  DCs have figured out that you can essentially pressure this team with 4 guys, and even then, the Bengals are often forced to use a back or TE to block, effectively removing a target from the play. Also, there is NO run game whatsoever because of these guys.

Now, for Dalton's end.  He has missed seeing open guys quite a bit this season as well.  Sometimes it's because he's under extreme duress, but others he is feeling pressure that just isn't there. This all also results in hurried throws that are off the mark. After the last two seasons, it's kinda hard for me to blame him 100% for that.