01-11-2018, 04:48 PM
(01-10-2018, 04:33 PM)ElderStatesman Wrote: 4th and long. Defense playing for postseason
On the road.
There was a 99.5% chance Balt wins that game.
Haha. The fact you cant identify the luck of that play is astounding
QBR, in theory, would be a better metric than QB rating, since a QBs feet are more important in today's game. The shortcoming in this type of stat is always the subjectivity. As soon as someone can put a static number on every type of pass, then it will be the standard.
That aside, your "fun fact" had nothing to do with luck. It had to do with finding the right receiver (blown coverage or not) and putting the ball right where it needed to be. Add it the circumstances, and it should be weighted pretty heavily.
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
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