01-18-2018, 10:36 AM
(01-18-2018, 02:04 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Oops.
I apologize for the typo. That should say "message board myth". I did not mean to infer that no statements on this board were ever backed up with facts. Just the claim that the Bengals have lost a game because Marvin played too conservative with a lead in the second half.
(01-18-2018, 02:40 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Why are you being so hateful?
One of the most common complaints about Marvin is that he causes the Bengals to lose games when he plays too conservative with a lead in the second half. I assume you have heard this claim.
All I am saying is that this is just a myth. In orderto prove that it is just a myth I have repeatedly asked people to give me an example of when this happened. And they never can. So if you want to rage at someone for making a claim with nothing to back it up you should be yelling at everyone that makes this claim instead of at me.
But here is the really bad news for you. You claim that when sitting on a lead Marvin is being too conservative unless he has Dalton throw the ball over 10 yards downfield 7 times in the second half, and there is not a single QB in the league who throws the ball that far that often even if you include the first half and times when they are behind. Roethlisberger is the only one that comes close. He averaged 13.4 pass attempts over ten yards downfield per game. Only a very few average more than ten per game. Rivers averaged 12.1. Brady 11.9. Wilson 11.6. Stafford 10.0. I did not check every QB in the league but the splits are available on ESPN.com if you want to dispute this claim.
Basically the standard you use to accuse Lewis of being too conservative makes every head coach in the league too conservative.
Next.
Fred,
If I recall, they have been one of the worst 2nd half scoring teams in the NFL the past few years. Link and a list I made below. I can sort this into 3rd and 4th quarter rankings as well and compile that. That statistic is found in the link below under More Scoring Stats > Offense By Quarter then select your quarter and see the ranking.
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/2nd-half-points-per-game
2017 - Tied for 31st with the Colts (Giants were less than 1/2 point behind them for last)
2016 - 27th by a smidgen
2015 - 10th
2014 - 19th
2013 - 13th
2012 - 16th
2011 - 10th
2010 - 17th
2009 - 27th
2008 - 32nd (Carson Injured year)
2007 - 9th
2006 - 12th
2005 - 9th
2004 - 8th
2003 - 21st
Average ranking: 16th. Exactly in the middle
Just to make sure I'm looking at data that we all deem relevant, let me know some statistics that would help in our detective work. I should probably go look game by game at how big the Bengals lead was at the start of the 2nd half or going into the 4th in any game and then break down scoring from there? Anyone, feel free to let me know what you stats you think are relevant and I'll work on it. Time of possession might be an interesting stat here as well.
