08-27-2015, 10:08 AM
This article sums up my thoughts pretty well. I like him but am not convinced he can lead us to a title. I made a post a couple years ago in the "Old board that shall not be named" some stats around fantasy (yes, fantasy) football. Dalton was top in the entire league in the number of "stud" performances but was also top in the number of "dud" performances. I pasted an excerpt from the Matthew Berry article below original article.
So basically, Andy is a total crap shoot. Think of it this way. It is almost like we are randomly picking "good" vs. "bad" Andy. In the playoffs, we need 4 straight good Andys to win a Super Bowl. The Bengals aren't good enough elsewhere (defense, coaching, etc.) to overcome "bad" Andy in the playoffs. Flip a coin and have it land heads up 4 straight times. The chances aren't very good (I am good at math & know the actual chance so no need to tell me).
""QB1" was a fantasy stud last year. He finished as a top-10 quarterback and had more 30-point games than any quarterback not named Peyton or Drew. In fact, according to Tristan H. Cockcroft's 2013 consistency rankings, those two quarterbacks (Peyton Manning and Drew Brees) were the only two who had more "stud" games than this guy. ("Stud" being defined as a QB who was top-two at his position for the week). His attempts, completions, touchdowns, yards, QB rating and QBR have improved every year he's been in the league. He has one of the most talented receiving corps around, including the leading wide receiver in end zone catch percentage (among qualified wideouts). Top 10 in the NFL in pass attempts last year, he's the leader of a high-octane offense that was sixth in the league in total points. And he has started every game of his career, so it's easy to see why this 4,000-yard passer was a high draft pick. He's coming off his best professional year ever, and considering he's still fairly young, the best is yet to come. Draft him high, and ride the wave.
On the other hand, "QB2" is being drafted well outside the top 10 this year, and it's no shock why. Per Tristan's same consistency rankings, Geno Smith, Eli Manning and Chad Henne were the only quarterbacks who were "stiffs" more often last season. ("Stiff" being defined as someone who ranked among the worst at his position, thus making almost any waiver wire option a better choice.) His interceptions have increased every year he has been in the league, his completion percentage decreased from the previous season, and his QBR was just four tenths of a point better than Ryan Fitzpatrick's. I repeat: Ryan Fitzpatrick. It's not just fantasy owners who have questions about this quarterback. His own team hasn't signed him to an extension yet, and in fact, he will be a free agent after this season. Considering how QB-starved the NFL is, it speaks volumes that his team is willing to let him walk. With the fifth most interceptions in the NFL last year, it's not surprising his team just hired a new offensive coordinator known for running the ball; in his latest job as a playcaller, this coach was top four in the NFL in rush attempts and rush yards. Hand the ball off and don't lose this for us, they seem to be saying. Something you don't want them to say about your quarterback as a fantasy owner. Look elsewhere.
Now, everything I wrote about for each player is 100 percent true. So tell me ... which QB do you want?
Before you answer, you should know that both quarterbacks are Andy Dalton."
Source:
Matthew Berry
7/15/2014
http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/nfldk2k14_TMR100facts/matthew-berry-fantasy-football-100-facts-2014-preseason
So basically, Andy is a total crap shoot. Think of it this way. It is almost like we are randomly picking "good" vs. "bad" Andy. In the playoffs, we need 4 straight good Andys to win a Super Bowl. The Bengals aren't good enough elsewhere (defense, coaching, etc.) to overcome "bad" Andy in the playoffs. Flip a coin and have it land heads up 4 straight times. The chances aren't very good (I am good at math & know the actual chance so no need to tell me).
""QB1" was a fantasy stud last year. He finished as a top-10 quarterback and had more 30-point games than any quarterback not named Peyton or Drew. In fact, according to Tristan H. Cockcroft's 2013 consistency rankings, those two quarterbacks (Peyton Manning and Drew Brees) were the only two who had more "stud" games than this guy. ("Stud" being defined as a QB who was top-two at his position for the week). His attempts, completions, touchdowns, yards, QB rating and QBR have improved every year he's been in the league. He has one of the most talented receiving corps around, including the leading wide receiver in end zone catch percentage (among qualified wideouts). Top 10 in the NFL in pass attempts last year, he's the leader of a high-octane offense that was sixth in the league in total points. And he has started every game of his career, so it's easy to see why this 4,000-yard passer was a high draft pick. He's coming off his best professional year ever, and considering he's still fairly young, the best is yet to come. Draft him high, and ride the wave.
On the other hand, "QB2" is being drafted well outside the top 10 this year, and it's no shock why. Per Tristan's same consistency rankings, Geno Smith, Eli Manning and Chad Henne were the only quarterbacks who were "stiffs" more often last season. ("Stiff" being defined as someone who ranked among the worst at his position, thus making almost any waiver wire option a better choice.) His interceptions have increased every year he has been in the league, his completion percentage decreased from the previous season, and his QBR was just four tenths of a point better than Ryan Fitzpatrick's. I repeat: Ryan Fitzpatrick. It's not just fantasy owners who have questions about this quarterback. His own team hasn't signed him to an extension yet, and in fact, he will be a free agent after this season. Considering how QB-starved the NFL is, it speaks volumes that his team is willing to let him walk. With the fifth most interceptions in the NFL last year, it's not surprising his team just hired a new offensive coordinator known for running the ball; in his latest job as a playcaller, this coach was top four in the NFL in rush attempts and rush yards. Hand the ball off and don't lose this for us, they seem to be saying. Something you don't want them to say about your quarterback as a fantasy owner. Look elsewhere.
Now, everything I wrote about for each player is 100 percent true. So tell me ... which QB do you want?
Before you answer, you should know that both quarterbacks are Andy Dalton."
Source:
Matthew Berry
7/15/2014
http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/nfldk2k14_TMR100facts/matthew-berry-fantasy-football-100-facts-2014-preseason
