New Backup QB

[*ochocincos*]

(02-19-2018, 02:02 PM)mroudfly Wrote: With AJM going to unrestricted FA, would you rather the Bengals draft a QB in this year's draft or spend some money in free agency for a journeyman? Driskell has had his moments, but he has the broken arm at the moment and I'm not sure I'd put my faith in him as a true backup if AD were to get injured...

Also - if you do go QB in this year's draft, how early do you go? Potential QB of the future in 2nd/3rd? Or Backup play in 4th/5th/6th?

I think it will be very unlikely for the Bengals to draft a QB before their expected comp pick in the third round. Probably more likely Day 3 (Rounds 4-7).
With that said, I think that could still be ok to wait because of all the QB talent in this upcoming draft.

You have the following QBs that are debated as future starters:
Darnold
Rosen
Allen
Jackson
Mayfield
Rudolph
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6

You also have the following QBs hitting FA that some team likely will consider as a starter:
Kirk Cousins
Drew Brees (likely not leaving NO but for the sake of a team needing a QB, we'll keep him in this list)
Teddy Bridgewater
Case Keenum
AJ McCarron
Sam Bradford (?)
--------------------------------
6

That's 12 potential starting QBs. 13 if a team trades with the Eagles for Nick Foles. 14 if BUF is looking for a trade partner for Tyrod.

The following teams have QB needs for this year or with an aging vet that they might want to replace in 1-2 years:
CLE
DEN
NYJ
MIN
ARZ
NYG
NO
LAC (?)
PIT (?)
NE (?)
BAL (?)
JAX (?)
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7 (12 if you include the teams with aging/bad QBs)

I expect Cousins, Brees, and at least one of the three MIN QBs to take up three starter spots. McCarron will likely go to a place that either has a starting QB opening or somewhere that has an aging QB in which McCarron would be given the reigns after 1-2 years. So that's at least four QB-needy teams off the table from FA.

There will then be a run in the first 2-3 rounds on the draft QBs I mention above for the teams that still need a franchise QB and need to or can invest in an early QB pick.

After that though, there should be that next tier of QBs in the draft that fall because the QB-needy teams will have acquired their starter already.
This group of QBs I think is led by Luke Falk out of Washington St. Personally I would welcome Luke Falk with 3rd round comp or in Round 4, as I think he has a lot of good qualities and Lazor's scheme caters to his strengths while masking some of his weaknesses.

I think this second tier of QBs will be who the Bengals look at on Day 3 if they haven't already picked up a cheap vet backup in FA (thinking Matt Moore or Chad Henne level). And there are a LOT of quality backup-level vet QBs, so I think that causes teams to spend less on these guys, making them a fiscal option.

With all that said though, I could also picture the Bengals taking advantage of a situation where one of those top-tier draft QBs slips to Pick 77 and they way really like what that guy offers.