AD better deep ball than u think

[wolverine515151]

(04-08-2018, 03:26 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 1. This is an subjective statement that is impossible to prove either way. I will say that if you think other QB's aren't getting "bailed out" on deep throws, you must not watch other teams very closely.

2. Dalton has thrown 31+ yards on 4.28% of all attempts. Ben on 5.77% of all attempts. Brady on 3.47%. These differences are negligible though. Over the course of 500 attempts, this would equate to a grand total of 7 more deep throws by Ben. This is not a big enough discrepancy to indicate anything, and saying that it indicates that Dalton "only throws when someone is wide open" is kinda wild and baseless.

I could easily respond by saying that maybe Dalton is a bit more selective on his deep throws, and that would explain why Dalton has more success on slightly fewer attempts. I won't say that though, because there's not enough evidence to make a claim either way.

3. I see some circus catches. I see times where Dalton throws an absolute dime. I see times where Dalton made a good choice and it was a little behind or ahead and still caught. I see times (especially last year) where Dalton threw it too far out of bounds. I see the exact same things when I watch other QB's throw deep. These things aren't exclusive to Dalton. 

The numbers show Dalton is more successful more often than most. And again, the year that AJ Green missed essentially half the season, Dalton did just fine on deep throws.

4. I'm not surprised you would pick the stats that support your take. I don't know what Pdub's links really show, though.

5. What stats did I manipulate? 

I never said other QB's aren't getting bailed out, I said not as often as Dalton. AJ is the best wide receiver at adjusting to badly thrown balls. If you don't believe that then you aren't watching the game closely. Provide a stat showing who is the best at adjusting to badly thrown deep balls.  I would bet anything that AJ is the best in the nfl at adjusting to bad balls. 

I have also asserted that AJ gets the most separation on deep balls,  and the more separation means an easier ball to complete.   Do you have a stat to show which receivers get the most separation on deep balls? Of course you don't, so without those details your numbers are not showing enough to prove that your stats are valid. 

That is what is meant by manipulating numbers, without those details the numbers mean very little. 

Pdub provided detailed stats from a site, that analysed very carefully the many factors that I have described. They showed Dalton to be a C level QB on deep balls for his whole career.  Now, if I choose a stats over another one, I will obviously choose one that is more detailed, than a stat which doesn't have much detail like the ones you provided. That isn't biased, it is sound logic. 

Big Ben throws 37% more deep balls than Dalton, which is quite significant and would indicate a QB who throws into much  tighter windows than Dalton, which would diminish his deep throw stats. As far as Brady is concerned , the only fair stat to show would be when he had a receiver comparable to Green in Moss, and that year he put up much better deep ball numbers than Dalton ever has.