04-15-2018, 09:00 PM
(04-15-2018, 06:45 PM)CornerBlitz Wrote: Was reading some of the articles/mailbag material on the main site and I came across this absolutely absurd analysis. I'm know he's always been a joke relative to the salary cap but this is beyond dumb. The Bengals would really prefer two third round picks over two first rounders? Really??
Will they replace center Russell Bodine (61) with backup T.J. Johnson (60) or draft one? And if they do, how high?
Do you think with our need of an athletic linebacker and an interior lineman that we could bundle up some of our 11 picks to get 2 first rounders and solve two problems on the first day? I know it would be an aggressive and very un-Bengals like move, but it seems to be the smartest. Derek Sheehan, Piqua, OH
DEREK: It’s not the smartest move this year. You’ll get pretty much the same player at 15 that you’ll get at 21 that you’ll get at 40. I think you’d rather have two third-rounders in this draft, like the Bengals, rather than two first-rounders. Ask Buffalo. From what I’m hearing the strength of this draft is rounds two through five, so if anything the smart move is trading back in the first round. How about maybe solving three problems in the first two days? I think they can stay right where they are and come out of the first five rounds with a starting center, a linebacker that won’t start but is active on game day, and a safety of some sort. The sense is it’s not a strong backer group at the top but there are some solid ones later on.
I would agree with Hobson's premise here. Why? ....
I study the draft like crazy as it's my favorite sporting event of the year. In my opinion, generally speaking, in this draft the Bengals will be getting a similarly graded/talented player at their pick #77 overall (3rd round #13) as they would have been getting at 12. To give up what they would have to give up to move up from 21 they would be idiots, unless it was to get into the top 6 or 7. And,even then, I'm still not sure that would be worth it.
They would be better served, IMO, trading out of the first to get more 3rd or 2nds or even a 3rd and a 4th depending on where those picks are in the rounds. The differences between guy number 21 and 100 (for example), is next to zero. They're going to be the same guy.
Some examples...
- D'Ron Payne is the highest rated DT at 6.51. Derrick Nnadi is the 7th rated DT at 5.74. That's .77 of a rating difference. However, in this draft, Payne will go in the 1st while Nnadi I would bet the 4th or 5th. End of the 3rd would be a dream for him.
- The highest rated S is Derwin James at 6.44. 7 spots back is Armani Watts at 5.73. A .71 difference. Watts should be a 4th or 5th rounder.
- Highest rated C is Daniels at a 6.03. Only a .51 difference between him and the 6th rated C, Quessenberry at 5.52.
- Highest rated OT is McGlinchey @ 5.95. But at 5.71 (.24 of a point) is the 7th highest rated OT, Brian O'Neill. Why trade UP for that little a difference?
^ The #1 C in last year's draft, BTW, was Elflein and he went #70 overall to the Vikings in round 3.
I'm just saying, the round isn't that big of a deal. It's the talent level that matters.
