09-02-2015, 09:05 AM
(09-02-2015, 08:55 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Most likely Andy Dalton. Even putting up a higher pick (Round 2 and up) against him, the odds are going to be stacked in Dalton's favor. The success rate of younger QB's in this league, when measured against starting caliber veterans, is just so low.
Any of us can ramble all off a slew of recent names like: Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Geno Smith, BJ Manuel, Christian Ponder, Jarmarcus Russell. And those are just the higher pick names, and a fraction of them at that.
Middle round picks have an even harder time gaining footing. Even when they play decently, many times teams are already looking ahead of them for that magic draft pick. See Zach Mettenberger and Mike Glennon for examples of this.
I've never quite understood the hopes for McCarron. I guess it's probably best explainable by many of our fans wanting so much to find a replacement for Dalton. Hey, I get it. But stacking the odds in favor of a 5th round pick is akin to being hopeful that you just hit at least $100 on that scratch off ticket.
The guy was a 5th round pick for a reason. I saw someone recently try to explain this slide as due to him being labeled as cocky in the interview process. I got news for you, there are plenty of "cocky" prospects that go in round 1, 2, 3, 4. There are plenty of prospects that come into the league with injury concerns that don't go in late rounds. The reason AJ McCarron went in the 5th round is because that's where his skillset left him. And I would argue that his name, program success and noteriety only helped him. Had he gone to, say, San Diego State, with that same arm, same measureables, same everything, we're probably looking at UDFA instead.
Just spitballing, I think AJ McCarron probably has about a 25% chance of starting more than 12 games in a single season, for any team, ever. I think he has about a 15% chance of having multiple starting seasons in the legue. And think he probably has under a 10% of posting a mid 80's and up QB rating while doing it.
Having a hot wife and success in college, that is thrown out the window once you get to the NFL, is not going to make like his chances any more than I liked Jeff Rowe's. Gino Toretta and Ken Dorsey had a ton of college success and we're drafted late. What to know how they did in the NFL? Unfortunately, the numbers just aren't in his favor. And is much as I dislike Dalton at times, this doesn't change the fact that his chances at seeing long term starts are very, very, very slim.
This. I was going to say something similar to this. I don't see McCarron getting a chance to start 4 full seasons and taking his team to the playoffs 4 years. I'll be surprised if he even sniffs 40 wins as a starter.
