04-26-2018, 09:39 AM
I've decided to do one final mock draft before the draft begins tonight. Rather than use First Pick, which has a tendency for unrealistic drops of players in the first round a bit too often (I've had simulations when Josh Allen is available at 21. I have trouble trusting a simulator where that's possible).
So I went with Fanspeak this time around and, I gotta say, there weren't any players available at any of my picks that made me say "This simulator is nonsense." There were a few that were a little curious, like Alex Cappa available in the 7th and Shaquem Griffin available in the 5th, but those are massive outliers, as the 3rd to 5th rounds are often times preference picks for teams and having a mid round grade means you can go as high as 70 and as low as 170, depending on who teams have their eye on. Much crazier things have happened than a potential 3rd rounder (Griffin) being there in the 5th.
So, without further ado, my final mock:
21: R1P21
C FRANK RAGNOW
ARKANSAS
Am I as sold as Nate and the boys? No. But I do know one thing. Dave Lapham knows what's going on. And if Ragnow's stock has surged as much as reports indicate, then he could easily go before this pick. In this particular simulation (which had him rated as the 30th best pick, which I believe is his true value), I went with Ragnow because it is the most likely pick and isn't really a huge reach. 5 years from now, it won't matter that we drafted him 10 slots too early if he's our starting center and he's capably holding the position down like Bodine never could. I would have loved to wait until the 2nd round to grab him but, to be perfectly honest, my choices at 21 weren't all that exciting anyway. The LBs and CBS were there, Jackson, Alexander, Evans, Vander Esch as well as some DL like Payne and Bryan, but Wynn and Hernandez were taken, McGlinchey was gone, Landry, Hurst and Vea were gone as well. The one player that I briefly considered was Marcus Davenport, but ultimately went the direction I think the Bengals would go and took the Olineman, which I think it the right call at the end of the day.
46: R2P14
OT CONNOR WILLIAMS
TEXAS
Connor Williams is a player who was being hyped as the next great Left Tackle prospect this time last year. However, this year he was injured and then, when he returned, he didn't look like himself. This isn't out of the ordinary for a player coming off of injury, so I don't think his 2017 tape is all that concerning when you're taking him in the second round. He does have a bit of a length issue, with only 33" arms on a 6'5" body. He also needs to get much stronger. I don't know if he'll ultimately end up at tackle, with some projecting a successful transition inside to guard. You'll either love this pick for the potential or hate it for the Cedric Ogbuehi feel he's got going on. I love his athleticism and, in the 2nd round, he's worth the risk. Price and Daniels were also available (which was suspect for this simulation, but not unheard of), and Tyrell Crosby was there as well. I think we could go a number of ways here and still feel good, but I do really like the idea of double tapping Oline right out of the gate like this.
77: R3P13
LB MALIK JEFFERSON
TEXAS
This is another high risk high reward pick (maybe I'm a risk taker?), but the athleticism is off the charts. In terms of work out numbers, Jefferson was on the same tier as Edmunds and Smith. He was never as productive as Smith and isn't the physical marvel of Edmunds (who is 20 lbs heavier and pretty similar athletically). Jefferson is a player who has all the physical talent you could ever want in a LB but didn't really show it off until his final year in college, under a new defensive coordinator. Reports indicate he is best when he plays aggressively rather than reactively. He has the athleticism to play coverage LB well, especially in the nickel, but he'll need to prove that he has the instincts for it. At worst, he's a very good special teams player who comes in on passing downs. At best, he's your starting WLB with Burfict moving inside.
100: R3P36
DL B.J. HILL
NC STATE
Hill is a defensive tackle that has the athleticism to rush the passer and the strength to hold up against the run. We've been looking for Atkins' partner in crime for...a long time. I thought we got him Billings 2 years ago, but he has yet to show much. Glasgow has potential, but he has basically no pass rush ability in him, making him a 2 down player at best. Hill gives you a potential 3 down player who can compliment Atkins and spell him when Atkins needs a break.
112: R4P12
CB DONTE JACKSON
LSU
This is one player I was surprised to see this low. Granted, speed isn't everything but getting a 4.32 40 yard dash CB in the 4th round is pretty surprising. He's got the mechanics of a corner down (back pedal, recovery, re-routing), but he doesn't show consistent instincts or route recognition. This can all be taught, of course, and his speed covers up a lot of his deficiencies (you may not recognize a double move, but could make up the gap after tricked), but he does have a small frame and may not be best on the outside, especially against big receivers who can simply move him out of the way. That said, you won't get a much better CB prospect in the 4th round than this, with sky high potential.
151: R5P14
EDGE MARQUIS HAYNES
OLE MISS
If you liked Carl Lawson, you'll like Haynes too. He may be better off as a pass rushing LB, as he is only 235 lbs. However, he's got surprising length (33 1/4" arms on a 6'2" frame) and speed to blow by many bigger, slower Olinemen. He'll never be a reliable starter on the Dline, but will be a valuable weapon in today's NFL, where passing is the only thing that matters.
158: R5P21
S TRAY MATTHEWS
AUBURN
Your classic "thumping safety." He tested well though, so he has potential to be a rangy safety over time. He is a leader in the locker room and could bring that competitive edge that every NFL team loves. He isn't great in man coverage, where his speed is exposed, but has good recognition when sitting in a middle zone coverage set.
170: R5P33
LB SHAQUEM GRIFFIN
UCF
This was one pick I was surprised was still there. There isn't much that needs to be said here. The guy is inspirational while also being a phenomenal player. Produced one of the most memorable Combine stories in recent memory, right next to Andre Smith's big bouncing boobs. A true gamer that would do work for this team in whatever role he is given.
249: R7P31
C MASON COLE
MICHIGAN
This was a pure value pick this late in the draft. Guys slip every year and Cole, having been moved to LT in his final year, really saw his stock fall. He was considered one of the better Center prospects coming out of the 2016 season, so moving him out to LT was not great for his future. He took it in stride though and, while I don't expect him to beat out Ragnow for Center duties, he'd be a perfectly fine back up who can also play spot duty at any of the 5 spots on the line.
252: R7P34
WR JUSTIN WATSON
PENNSYLVANIA
I don't know much about him. A big, productive player from a small school. He ran a 4.40 at his pro day which was...surprising for a 6'3" 225lb white guy (don't @ me, it's a joke) with equally impressive numbers in several other athletic tests. He just...never seemed to catch the eye of the NFL. At least not publicly. Maybe he gets drafted way earlier than expected and proves the draft evaluators wrong. That said, he's worth the risk all the way down here, right?
253: R7P35
QB LUKE FALK
WASHINGTON ST.
Falk's draft stock has been all over the place this off season. On the one hand, he has your prototypical size for a QB, at 6'4". Has shown consistent accuracy on the majority of passes and shows the ability to read a defense and go through his progressions. On the other hand, he's got below average arm strength and takes way too many risks. He also takes way too many sacks. The numbers reveal him to be somewhat of a dink and dunk QB who can't take the top off the defense. A good back up but that may be his ceiling. However, we've seen extremely accurate weaker armed QBs succeed in the past, so him playing well when Dalton is taken out of the game would not be surprising in the least.
That's what I got, let me know what you think. I'm sure I'm completely wrong and I just wasted my morning, but I had a good time doing it :) .
So I went with Fanspeak this time around and, I gotta say, there weren't any players available at any of my picks that made me say "This simulator is nonsense." There were a few that were a little curious, like Alex Cappa available in the 7th and Shaquem Griffin available in the 5th, but those are massive outliers, as the 3rd to 5th rounds are often times preference picks for teams and having a mid round grade means you can go as high as 70 and as low as 170, depending on who teams have their eye on. Much crazier things have happened than a potential 3rd rounder (Griffin) being there in the 5th.
So, without further ado, my final mock:
21: R1P21
C FRANK RAGNOW
ARKANSAS
Am I as sold as Nate and the boys? No. But I do know one thing. Dave Lapham knows what's going on. And if Ragnow's stock has surged as much as reports indicate, then he could easily go before this pick. In this particular simulation (which had him rated as the 30th best pick, which I believe is his true value), I went with Ragnow because it is the most likely pick and isn't really a huge reach. 5 years from now, it won't matter that we drafted him 10 slots too early if he's our starting center and he's capably holding the position down like Bodine never could. I would have loved to wait until the 2nd round to grab him but, to be perfectly honest, my choices at 21 weren't all that exciting anyway. The LBs and CBS were there, Jackson, Alexander, Evans, Vander Esch as well as some DL like Payne and Bryan, but Wynn and Hernandez were taken, McGlinchey was gone, Landry, Hurst and Vea were gone as well. The one player that I briefly considered was Marcus Davenport, but ultimately went the direction I think the Bengals would go and took the Olineman, which I think it the right call at the end of the day.
46: R2P14
OT CONNOR WILLIAMS
TEXAS
Connor Williams is a player who was being hyped as the next great Left Tackle prospect this time last year. However, this year he was injured and then, when he returned, he didn't look like himself. This isn't out of the ordinary for a player coming off of injury, so I don't think his 2017 tape is all that concerning when you're taking him in the second round. He does have a bit of a length issue, with only 33" arms on a 6'5" body. He also needs to get much stronger. I don't know if he'll ultimately end up at tackle, with some projecting a successful transition inside to guard. You'll either love this pick for the potential or hate it for the Cedric Ogbuehi feel he's got going on. I love his athleticism and, in the 2nd round, he's worth the risk. Price and Daniels were also available (which was suspect for this simulation, but not unheard of), and Tyrell Crosby was there as well. I think we could go a number of ways here and still feel good, but I do really like the idea of double tapping Oline right out of the gate like this.
77: R3P13
LB MALIK JEFFERSON
TEXAS
This is another high risk high reward pick (maybe I'm a risk taker?), but the athleticism is off the charts. In terms of work out numbers, Jefferson was on the same tier as Edmunds and Smith. He was never as productive as Smith and isn't the physical marvel of Edmunds (who is 20 lbs heavier and pretty similar athletically). Jefferson is a player who has all the physical talent you could ever want in a LB but didn't really show it off until his final year in college, under a new defensive coordinator. Reports indicate he is best when he plays aggressively rather than reactively. He has the athleticism to play coverage LB well, especially in the nickel, but he'll need to prove that he has the instincts for it. At worst, he's a very good special teams player who comes in on passing downs. At best, he's your starting WLB with Burfict moving inside.
100: R3P36
DL B.J. HILL
NC STATE
Hill is a defensive tackle that has the athleticism to rush the passer and the strength to hold up against the run. We've been looking for Atkins' partner in crime for...a long time. I thought we got him Billings 2 years ago, but he has yet to show much. Glasgow has potential, but he has basically no pass rush ability in him, making him a 2 down player at best. Hill gives you a potential 3 down player who can compliment Atkins and spell him when Atkins needs a break.
112: R4P12
CB DONTE JACKSON
LSU
This is one player I was surprised to see this low. Granted, speed isn't everything but getting a 4.32 40 yard dash CB in the 4th round is pretty surprising. He's got the mechanics of a corner down (back pedal, recovery, re-routing), but he doesn't show consistent instincts or route recognition. This can all be taught, of course, and his speed covers up a lot of his deficiencies (you may not recognize a double move, but could make up the gap after tricked), but he does have a small frame and may not be best on the outside, especially against big receivers who can simply move him out of the way. That said, you won't get a much better CB prospect in the 4th round than this, with sky high potential.
151: R5P14
EDGE MARQUIS HAYNES
OLE MISS
If you liked Carl Lawson, you'll like Haynes too. He may be better off as a pass rushing LB, as he is only 235 lbs. However, he's got surprising length (33 1/4" arms on a 6'2" frame) and speed to blow by many bigger, slower Olinemen. He'll never be a reliable starter on the Dline, but will be a valuable weapon in today's NFL, where passing is the only thing that matters.
158: R5P21
S TRAY MATTHEWS
AUBURN
Your classic "thumping safety." He tested well though, so he has potential to be a rangy safety over time. He is a leader in the locker room and could bring that competitive edge that every NFL team loves. He isn't great in man coverage, where his speed is exposed, but has good recognition when sitting in a middle zone coverage set.
170: R5P33
LB SHAQUEM GRIFFIN
UCF
This was one pick I was surprised was still there. There isn't much that needs to be said here. The guy is inspirational while also being a phenomenal player. Produced one of the most memorable Combine stories in recent memory, right next to Andre Smith's big bouncing boobs. A true gamer that would do work for this team in whatever role he is given.
249: R7P31
C MASON COLE
MICHIGAN
This was a pure value pick this late in the draft. Guys slip every year and Cole, having been moved to LT in his final year, really saw his stock fall. He was considered one of the better Center prospects coming out of the 2016 season, so moving him out to LT was not great for his future. He took it in stride though and, while I don't expect him to beat out Ragnow for Center duties, he'd be a perfectly fine back up who can also play spot duty at any of the 5 spots on the line.
252: R7P34
WR JUSTIN WATSON
PENNSYLVANIA
I don't know much about him. A big, productive player from a small school. He ran a 4.40 at his pro day which was...surprising for a 6'3" 225lb white guy (don't @ me, it's a joke) with equally impressive numbers in several other athletic tests. He just...never seemed to catch the eye of the NFL. At least not publicly. Maybe he gets drafted way earlier than expected and proves the draft evaluators wrong. That said, he's worth the risk all the way down here, right?
253: R7P35
QB LUKE FALK
WASHINGTON ST.
Falk's draft stock has been all over the place this off season. On the one hand, he has your prototypical size for a QB, at 6'4". Has shown consistent accuracy on the majority of passes and shows the ability to read a defense and go through his progressions. On the other hand, he's got below average arm strength and takes way too many risks. He also takes way too many sacks. The numbers reveal him to be somewhat of a dink and dunk QB who can't take the top off the defense. A good back up but that may be his ceiling. However, we've seen extremely accurate weaker armed QBs succeed in the past, so him playing well when Dalton is taken out of the game would not be surprising in the least.
That's what I got, let me know what you think. I'm sure I'm completely wrong and I just wasted my morning, but I had a good time doing it :) .
![[Image: oN5QAdY.png]](https://i.imgur.com/oN5QAdY.png)
