AD better deep ball than u think

[wolverine515151]

(04-26-2018, 08:19 AM)fredtoast Wrote: This is VERY subjective because you can not tell me what the difference is between "wide open" and "very open".  And what possible difference could it make to the QBs throw if a receiver is "wide open" or "very open"?  Wouldn't he make the exact same throw no matter how well the receiver is covered?


Again you are just complaining about the formula without offering a better one that relies on objective stats.  

I sure can tell you the difference; I would stop the film right before the ball arrives and measure the distance between the defender and the wide receiver.  You could even use some kind of software to measure precisely. I'm sure even something as primitive as a ruler would give very good accuracy. 

I'm certain that when this guy did his calculation he put small differences in calculation when it was wide open or very open.  He probably gave a slightly lower rating if the qb completed a deep ball to someone wide open as opposed to very open.  Even if he said it was wide open as opposed to very open the difference in points would be very small and would not effect the overall grades he assigns.

The main point is that a huge difference would be calculated if the wide receiver was wide open as opposed to blanketed. A throw made to a wide open receiver is way easier than completing a ball where you have a few inches of error to make the throw.  

He would probably put more air under it if the receiver was closer to the wide receiver, as opposed to farther away, to keep it away from the defender. This would mean more touch and accuracy is needed. Furthermore, even if he made the same throw both times, an inaccurate throw to an open wide receiver would most likely be a completion while to a tightly covered wide receiver an in completion.

I gave a sketch of what kind of formula I would use.  I have stated it very clearly. I'd calculate the the qb's completion % for all throws over 30 yards and rank them every year for the pass 7 years. Then I would adjust for offensive line and weapons.