12-22-2018, 03:44 AM
So, to give a proper rundown of what was given and what was received:
The Reds offloaded Homer and his 23 million dollar salary.
They also relieved themselves of the 5 million dollar buyout for his 2020 season.
They received 7 million dollars from the Dodgers.
They received Alex Wood. A solid, relatively young ground ball pitcher who doesn't give up a lot of home runs who has a 3.29 career ERA and a respectable set of statistics, including a 117 career ERA+ (100 ERA+ indicating an "average" ERA score).
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodal02.shtml
His arbitration salary is projected to be approximately 9 million dollars.
They received Yasiel Puig. A relatively young outfielder with a cannon for an arm and good power with a career 127 OPS+ and .279 career batting average.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/puigya01.shtml
His salary is 9.2 million dollars.
They received Matt Kemp. An aging outfielder who will likely be used in platoon or pinch hitting situations unless he regains his previous form. He did have a bit of a resurgence in 2018, but during the final few months and the Dodgers playoff run, he was well below average. He had a good statistical season due to his strong start however, at .290/.338/.481 and an OPS+ of 121.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kempma01.shtml
His salary is a whopping 21.75 million dollars, 2.5 of which is being paid by San Diego. Net cost for the Reds: 19.25 million dollars.
They received Kyle Farmer, who I don't know much about but seems like a backup 3B/C for the bench.
The net change in salaries owed due to this trade for 2019:
+ 23
+ 7
- 9
- 9.2
- 19.25
Total: - 7.45 million.
Plus, we save 5 milion in 2020, due to Homer's buy out no longer being our problem. So net cost is 2.45 million.
All three of these players are in the last year of team control and will be free agents in 2019. The good news is that, since Puig and Wood are coming off their arbitration years, if the Reds offer them a qualifying offer and they refuse, we get competitive balance draft picks (similar to compensatory picks) that could be as high as 1st or 2nd round, depending on their performance and subsequent contract signings. Essentially, each of those players will either be re-signed by the Reds in 2020 or will be replaced by rookie draft picks.
What we gave up:
Homer Bailey...which is just amazing for us since he was literally not worth a damn thing. The Dodgers will almost certainly release him as soon as the trade is made official. There are some sort of Luxury Tax loopholes that I don't understand that explain why the Dodgers would do this. They are trying to clear cap space to sign Harper.
Jeter Downs. A 1st round pick in 2017 (in the competitive balance round, basically a top of the 2nd round pick) who showed good raw tools at 2B, but has not converted them to stats yet. He's still very young and projects to be an above average hitter with good power, but he's at least 2 years from the major leagues. Maybe 3 years. He has a lot to prove, but the talent is definitely there (he was rated our 8th best prospect at the time of the trade. He's now shown as the 7th ranked prospect in the Dodgers system).
Josiah Gray. A 2nd round pick in 2018. He's got a sick fastball with a slider that could match it, but he has shown inconsistency. He was drafted out of college, but has the developmental path of a high school player because he didn't take up pitching until after entering college. If things break right for him, he'd be a good middle of the rotation player for the Dodgers, playing off his fastball and, if it develops, his slider. He is also at least 2, if not 3 or 4, years away from the majors. That said, some Reds bloggers, especially Doug Gray over at https://redsminorleagues.com/2018/12/21/reds-acquire-alex-wood-yasiel-puig-matt-kemp-in-trade/ , were REALLY high on his potential for our team.
TL;DR
We pay a net 7.45 million dollars this year (and 2.45 million total over the two years), we give away a piece of shit pitcher and 2 high upside but far from major league ready prospects who we recently drafted with competitive balance picks in the 1st and 2nd round, respectively.
for
1 year of a starting level RF, 1 year of a middle of the rotation left handed starter, 1 year of a possible impact bench and platoon outfielder and a bench/backup/minor league 3B/C. And if, at the end of the 2019 year, the the two most attractive parts of the package play well and turn down the Reds' qualifying offers (or don't sign long term with us in some other way), we get a 1st or 2nd round compensatory pick, based on how much the contract they do sign is worth (if 50 million or more, first round. if less, 2nd round) for each player.
Theoretically, those draft picks have the same approximate value as Downs and Gray in the sense of their draft spot (and it's not like either has significantly overplayed their draft slot to this point).
So if you want to view it as a Homer for Puig/Wood/Kemp deal, you'd be forgiven for that simplification.
Overall, it's pretty freaking incredible.
The Reds offloaded Homer and his 23 million dollar salary.
They also relieved themselves of the 5 million dollar buyout for his 2020 season.
They received 7 million dollars from the Dodgers.
They received Alex Wood. A solid, relatively young ground ball pitcher who doesn't give up a lot of home runs who has a 3.29 career ERA and a respectable set of statistics, including a 117 career ERA+ (100 ERA+ indicating an "average" ERA score).
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodal02.shtml
His arbitration salary is projected to be approximately 9 million dollars.
They received Yasiel Puig. A relatively young outfielder with a cannon for an arm and good power with a career 127 OPS+ and .279 career batting average.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/puigya01.shtml
His salary is 9.2 million dollars.
They received Matt Kemp. An aging outfielder who will likely be used in platoon or pinch hitting situations unless he regains his previous form. He did have a bit of a resurgence in 2018, but during the final few months and the Dodgers playoff run, he was well below average. He had a good statistical season due to his strong start however, at .290/.338/.481 and an OPS+ of 121.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kempma01.shtml
His salary is a whopping 21.75 million dollars, 2.5 of which is being paid by San Diego. Net cost for the Reds: 19.25 million dollars.
They received Kyle Farmer, who I don't know much about but seems like a backup 3B/C for the bench.
The net change in salaries owed due to this trade for 2019:
+ 23
+ 7
- 9
- 9.2
- 19.25
Total: - 7.45 million.
Plus, we save 5 milion in 2020, due to Homer's buy out no longer being our problem. So net cost is 2.45 million.
All three of these players are in the last year of team control and will be free agents in 2019. The good news is that, since Puig and Wood are coming off their arbitration years, if the Reds offer them a qualifying offer and they refuse, we get competitive balance draft picks (similar to compensatory picks) that could be as high as 1st or 2nd round, depending on their performance and subsequent contract signings. Essentially, each of those players will either be re-signed by the Reds in 2020 or will be replaced by rookie draft picks.
What we gave up:
Homer Bailey...which is just amazing for us since he was literally not worth a damn thing. The Dodgers will almost certainly release him as soon as the trade is made official. There are some sort of Luxury Tax loopholes that I don't understand that explain why the Dodgers would do this. They are trying to clear cap space to sign Harper.
Jeter Downs. A 1st round pick in 2017 (in the competitive balance round, basically a top of the 2nd round pick) who showed good raw tools at 2B, but has not converted them to stats yet. He's still very young and projects to be an above average hitter with good power, but he's at least 2 years from the major leagues. Maybe 3 years. He has a lot to prove, but the talent is definitely there (he was rated our 8th best prospect at the time of the trade. He's now shown as the 7th ranked prospect in the Dodgers system).
Josiah Gray. A 2nd round pick in 2018. He's got a sick fastball with a slider that could match it, but he has shown inconsistency. He was drafted out of college, but has the developmental path of a high school player because he didn't take up pitching until after entering college. If things break right for him, he'd be a good middle of the rotation player for the Dodgers, playing off his fastball and, if it develops, his slider. He is also at least 2, if not 3 or 4, years away from the majors. That said, some Reds bloggers, especially Doug Gray over at https://redsminorleagues.com/2018/12/21/reds-acquire-alex-wood-yasiel-puig-matt-kemp-in-trade/ , were REALLY high on his potential for our team.
TL;DR
We pay a net 7.45 million dollars this year (and 2.45 million total over the two years), we give away a piece of shit pitcher and 2 high upside but far from major league ready prospects who we recently drafted with competitive balance picks in the 1st and 2nd round, respectively.
for
1 year of a starting level RF, 1 year of a middle of the rotation left handed starter, 1 year of a possible impact bench and platoon outfielder and a bench/backup/minor league 3B/C. And if, at the end of the 2019 year, the the two most attractive parts of the package play well and turn down the Reds' qualifying offers (or don't sign long term with us in some other way), we get a 1st or 2nd round compensatory pick, based on how much the contract they do sign is worth (if 50 million or more, first round. if less, 2nd round) for each player.
Theoretically, those draft picks have the same approximate value as Downs and Gray in the sense of their draft spot (and it's not like either has significantly overplayed their draft slot to this point).
So if you want to view it as a Homer for Puig/Wood/Kemp deal, you'd be forgiven for that simplification.
Overall, it's pretty freaking incredible.
![[Image: oN5QAdY.png]](https://i.imgur.com/oN5QAdY.png)
