Bell to the Jets

[George Cantstandya]

(03-13-2019, 10:21 AM)michaelsean Wrote: So if you are making less than was offered, how long does it take to make up the money you missed out on?

I suck at math (and I not a rapper) but lets see if I can figure this out based on potential earnings.  If I mess it up don't get snotty with me.  :)

I'll leave the guaranteed money out for this part and will get to that later. :

The Steelers offer was $70 million over 5 years ($14 million a year).  So he would earn a total of $56 million over the first 4 years of the contract.  But he didn't sign and is now $14 million in the red so to speak due to not playing last year.

He will earn $52.5 over 4 years ($13,125,000 a year) if he plays out his contract with the Jets.  $56 million (4 years pay under the Steelers contract) - $52.5 million (Jets contract) = $3.5 million less he will earn over the next 4 years if he plays out his contract. 

With the $14 million he is already short from not playing last year plus the $3.5 million he is getting payed less over the next 4 years than if he had accepted the Steelers offer he would end up with $17.5 million less by the end of his contract with the Jets.  To put it more simply $70 million - $52.5 million = $17.5 million.

Now about the guaranteed money:

This depends on how much he is fully guaranteed.  I have not seen that figure posted yet.  Edit I just saw a rumor that it is $28 million fully guaranteed.  That apparently was what Bell was looking for.  So if he suffers a career ending injury, gets cut, or for some other reason can't play in the early portion of his contract with the Jets he made the right choice.  As opposed to the Steelers who I think offered him $15 million fully guaranteed last year. His Jet's contract total guarantees is $2 million more ($35 million) guaranteed than the Steelers offer ($33 million) .

 
Now let's look at earning the money back he has lost from not playing last year and signing a lower contract from what the Steelers offered:

Again with the above assumptions about playing the full length of the contract Bell will end up with $17.5 less 4 years from now than he would have earned with the Steelers.  

Basically he will have to hope that year off gave him extra years after his current contract where he can still play well enough to get a fairly big new contract. That or hope he can play even longer getting paid at the non-elite level / average level. It depends on his health and how well he ages.  By then he will be 31 years old.  I think in the best case scenario it would take at least 2 years as I don't see a 31 year old RB making $17.5 million a year.  However given his age by then probably closer to 2.5 years and that's just to break even based on his potential earning from the Steelers offer.  To make more than his potential earning from the Steelers he's probably going to have to hope to play until he is at least 35 years old.

Either way it's still a loss for a few reasons.  For one, he will have to play longer than he may want to to break even. Secondly, consider the year of lost money from the $14 million last year that could have been put in to investments or could be earning interest for a year.  Also I think New Jersey has a significantly higher state income tax so that is even more money lost. Lastly, he went to the Jets, a team that will have to improve significantly to be on the same level as his previous team.

In summary, he may not ever fully recoup what he could have potentially earned had he accepted the Steelers offer last year.  He gambled and ended up leaving a lot of potential earnings on the table.  Also I did not include any potential bonuses he may earn and simply based it on base salary. For example it is reported that his Jets contract has a max value of $61 million.  

I probably messed something up in my post.  Like I said I math is certainly not my strong point